Pacific Division Preview Part 1: Phoenix Suns

Now that the NBA offseason is nearing a close, and, thankfully, training camp will begin in a matter of weeks, I’m going to take the next few posts to begin to delve into the Pacific Division, the moves that each team made, how I think they’ll fair, etc.

Because I used to love them so dearly until they went and traded Marion for the man I hate most in the NBA, I’m going to begin my venture with a look at the Suns.

Steve Kerr said it himself after last February’s “blockbuster” deal, “If it works I’m a genius, if it doesn’t I’m a moron.”

In my humble opinion, he’s now officially a moron. Sure, I have been heaping all kinds of praise (due or not) on the newly revamped Clippers squad who has yet to produce anything together, let alone 2 former MVPs, 2 rookie of the years, or anything close to a Western Conference Finals appearance.

But, my expectations for the Clips are both high and low. They are high in that I feel like they can make the playoffs, maybe even make some noise there. They are low, however, in that realistically, as constructed right now, they are a long shot to win a championship. Not saying it’s impossible, just highly, highly, highly unlikely.

For the Suns? Their expectations are nothing less than a championship. They’ve done the playoff thing for the past four seasons, their highest accomplishment the aforementioned Western Conference Finals where they’ve been twice—two seasons ago where they lost to Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks, and in 04-05 where they lost to the San Antonio Spurs, their arch-nemesis.

Since their last WCF appearance in 05-06, the team appears to be heading in the wrong direction, getting bounced in the Semi’s in 06-07 and then in the first round last year.

Hopefully, that trend does not continue into the 08-09 season, cuz, well, there’s only one place lower for them to go…the lottery. 

They’ve got a new coach, the briefly battle-tested Terry Porter who managed to get a pretty mediocre Bucks team into the playoffs a few years ago. He’s seen the underbelly of the Suns’ “Arch-nemesis” playing for Greg Popovich from 01-03. He’s also been as far as the Eastern Conference finals (twice), as an assistant to Flip Saunders in Detroit.

But, again, ECF, WCF, neither is the Finals.

Porter inherits a team of aging, mostly past-their-prime veterans. A team, that, not two short seasons ago, seemed to be set to legitimately contend in the immediate present, and for the foreseeable future.

At the end of 05-06, after having lost to the Mavs without Stoudemire, the Suns future looked bright. Not only would Amare be joining them for the next season, but Barbosa had emerged as a legitimate 6th man of the year and looked set to break out the next season. Diaw had dropped a tidy 13, 6, 6.7 on the league out of nowhere, able to play all five positions in the Suns run-n-gun system. Marion and Bell were coming off of career seasons. Nash had just wrapped up his second MVP.

In fact, knock on wood, they were very much similar to the present day Lakers. A team with the reigning MVP (Kobe), an underachieving star finally achieving (Odom), and two players coming off of career seasons (Fish and Gasol). A team pushing the salary cap, but flush with talent and expecting their big man, star of the future coming back from knee surgery, to push them over the top.

Well, Amare returned. So did his ego. Diaw fell back to earth, ate himself into a fat contract, where, he literally got fat. Barbosa did not improve. Bell and Marion took backwards steps. And Nash got even better, but another year older. Not to mention, Robert Sarver started selling draft picks like they were home loans.

The year ended with Nash getting checked into the scorer’s table and the two most "brilliant" minds on the Suns, leaving the bench, thus earning suspensions, which ultimately led to the Suns getting dropped, once again, by the Spurs.

Fast forward to today, and the Suns have Shaq. In fact, let’s go over their roster:


POINT GUARDS

-Steve Nash:

His minutes and games are supposedly going to be strictly limited, something like 32 and 70 respectively. We’ll see how long that lasts. Nash has steadily improved each of the past three seasons, but, at some point, that trend will reverse itself. He is 34 years old. He’ll have a good season, if healthy. Maybe his best shooting season (which is saying a lot since he’s been over 50 percent his last four with a high of 53 percent) due to more reps with Shaq and Amare and less pressure on him to create all the time. His assists, for certain, will go down, unless Shaq manages to miss half or more of the season and the team tries to emulate it’s run-n-gun days of old (see why this won’t happen down below). 

-Goran Dragic:

I’ve read nothing but negative things about him, from his inability to shoot to his inability to play at the NBA level, to the stack of cash that the Suns invested in him with the hopes that he can do those things right away. He’s supposedly a fiend on defense, but if he can’t handle the rock, can’t shoot, and can’t pass, uh, seems like DJ Strawberry would have been the better option. Wouldn’t be surprised if Singletary takes the majority of backup minutes. 

-Sean Singletary:

Although…Singletary is tiny. I mean, like nearly my height, and I’m of Japanese ancestry. And since Earl Boykins went overseas to play, Singletary will struggle to guard anybody. Er, sounds a lot like the Suns' other, primary option at point. On the plus side, he’s a solid distributor and can get hot from the field. He’s real streaky however. To bad the Suns can’t figure out some way to mix the best parts of Dragic and Singletary. Like, Dringletary.

SHOOTING GUARDS

-Leandro Barbosa:

Next to Amare, Barbosa is the Sun that needs to take the biggest steps in improving his all around game. He’s never been even adequate at defense, mostly due to his size, but he’ll have to use his quickness and get real smart on defense, real quick. He’s also going to have to find a killer instinct. At some point, he might take over the starter’s role, but, that would mean perhaps the weakest perimeter defensive combo in, dare I say it, the entire Western Conference. LB can shoot and he can take it to the hole, but he’s gotta find a mid range game too. Hopefully he’s been hard at work this offseason. Barbosa needs to stay in the game, focused, at all times. He can't let little things or lack of touches bump him out of contests. I think he'll be asked to take a lot of end-of-the-game shots due to Nash's inability to get to the hole in crucial situations. 
   
-Raja Bell:

He’s pushing 32, and is undersized. His 3-point shot has seen a steady decline since his breakout year in 05-06. Because he doesn’t get blocks or steals, nor does he create shots for himself (sometimes he tries, but it rarely ever ends well, unless he totally catches his man by surprise) he needs to be a deadeye from beyond the arc. His man defense is good, but has become overrated. He still does a great job of literally getting up in his man’s face, but due to his height disadvantage and the fact he’s slowing down a bit, he’s nowhere near the “stopper” he was considered two seasons ago.  
   
SMALL FORWARD

-Matt Barnes:

He’s scrappy. He does all those little things that help win games. He’s also a strong rebounder. He’s basically going to fill a poor man’s Shawn Marion role—like if Marion didn’t have his crazy athleticism. Barnes can shoot the corner three fairly accurately, or, at least when he’s gotten consistent playing time he’s shown he can make it. He also has a tendency to get hot with the ability to bury teams with his outside shooting. His handle is suspect, but he’s a smart passer. He’s a gritty defender but, at only 6-7, struggles against traditional 4s. He’s one of the more underrated offseason additions and will more than make up for the loss of Gordon Giricek to the Turkish Euroleague. He'll relieve Hill and play a bit of PF if the club decides to go small. 

-Boris Diaw:

He’s Mr. Inconsistency. He’s got some handle, and a pretty good post-up game, with some nifty around the basket moves, but if he’s not the focal point of the offense, he tends to simply disappear. He’s got to find a rhythm early on in the season and at the very least find his 05-06 form in order for the Suns to be legitimate contenders. He causes a great deal of matchup problems because he can play all five positions (and guard all five positions). What’s so frustrating about him is what makes him so tantalizing. He’s not really definable. He's able to handle the ball, pass, shoot, and play in the post, but he’s not exceptional at any one skill and the effort level comes and goes. Obviously, it’s imperative that he comes into camp in shape. It’s not a good idea to bet your season’s success on this guy, but, he’s just as vital a key as anyone else on this roster in terms of a legitimate title run.

-Grant Hill:

He’s dynamite when healthy. Can still play above average defense. Showed that he still maintains a well-above average level of athleticism. Has got a wicked J inside the 3-point line. Has improved his 3-point shot. He’s solid all the way around, but he’s no longer a star. He’s incredibly intelligent, maybe one of the smartest players in the league. The addition of Barnes will definitely help in giving Hill rest, but, in the end, the Suns need Hill running on all cylinders in the playoffs.
   
-Alando Tucker:

He’s athletic and had a solid college career, but with the addition of Barnes, he probably won’t get too much burn. However, he’s one Grant Hill injury away from getting some meaningful minutes. 
   
-Linton Johnson:

He’s another tweener type, with great athleticism and energy. He can definitely rebound thanks to the hops, but has no offensive game whatsoever. Might be a decent fit playing next to Diaw, if Diaw is playing the power forward spot. 

POWER FORWARD
   
-Amare Stoudemire:

The key to the season. There’s no question that Amare’s offensive skill set is out of this world. Last season he was nailing down that 15-17 footer with a great deal of consistency. The question with Amare remains his head. I read about his visit to Sierra Leone, how he’s working their to build water wells. Let me get this clear before anything else (because if you’ve read me before, I obviously have a negative bias against this kid), I’m not questioning Amare’s heart. He sounds like a great kid, does the right thing off the court. Has worked hard to make himself into a devastating offense force. Worked hard to get back to that level after his microfracture surgery. So, I’m not questioning his heart in any way. What I can’t stand about Amare is his head. He cost the Suns the series two yeas ago by jumping off the bench. He complained and complained and convinced himself he couldn’t play the 5, prompting Kerr to bring in Shaq. The worst part about the whole thing is that Amare is starting to act like Shaq. That’s a horrible notion if you recall how hard O’Neal has worked each offseason. Another example of Amare’s Shaqness, this offseason, Amare, much like Shaq has done to every former coach he’s ever had, couldn’t help but take a jab at his former coach, by insinuating that, in four years under D’Antoni, the team never practiced any defense. As if that was the reason why Amare can’t play a lick of D. Even if that statement is true, which it very well may be, the fact that Amare is the best offensive big in the league would have to be credited to D’Antoni as well. But in Amare’s head, his lack of defensive ability is someone else’s fault. What Amare needs to do this season sounds simple enough. He needs to continue his high level of offensive play, but he’s got to be a basket-protector. He’s terrible at defending the rim. He’s even worse at playing man up D. That’s why, a summer with the U.S. Olympic team, being hounded by Kobe and Lebron, being guided by a team that was focused on defense, could have done wonders for the 26-year-old. Maybe he’s learned defense on his own, or maybe Porter has constructed the perfect team defensive scheme. If Amare can make that jump, if he can become as devastatingly effective on defense as he is on offense, this team could definitely make it to the finals. Could definitely win the whole thing. But that’s a huge if.  

-Louis Amundson:

He’s a ball of energy. He’s goes after everything, contests shots, tip-ins, rebounds, etc. Don’t know how much time he’ll get, but he would’ve been perfect for the team two years ago. He’s going to be 26 soon, and he’s only 6-8, so his limitations are in his age and size. 

CENTER

-Robin Lopez:

At first it was a bit of a head scratcher as to why the Suns chose to draft Lopez over the likes of Mario Chalmers or other point guards available at that point in the draft, but, it is now quite obvious that the move was a pretty good one (despite the hole at backup point). Lopez is Shaq-surance. In fact, he’s going to be the future, taking Shaq’s place as the big in the middle who plays center so little, frail, not-center-material Amare can punish the opposition at the 4. Plus, he’ll make a really great backup and give Amare everything he’s ever dreamed in a sidekick center. Big body. Check. Tenacious, though not sound defense. Check. Energy in bunches. Check. Rebounding, er, half a check. No need for the ball on offense. Check plus plus!   

-Shaquille O’Neal:

Word is, the Big Cactus has already reported to the Suns training facilities. Really? But Halloween’s not for another 60 days. The season’s nearly two months away still. The Summer’s still going strong baby. Has the Big Diesel even dropped an album? A movie? On second thought, maybe it’s better that Shaq seems to be sticking with basketball. Already this offseason he’s made a, funny, albeit very sad rap attack on Kobe, gotten his honorary sheriff’s badge taken away, and been slapped with a restraining order for allegedly stalking an Atlanta Hip-hop artist. Hopefully reporting early means he’s, “once again,” serious about bball…but, come on, this is Shaq. Despite being a huge piece of Phoenix’s championship puzzle, like the big center piece, Shaq will probably continue his sharp decline into just another big, injury-prone body. All those years of not working on any sort of post game have resulted in the ugly, baby hook shot that should go in 80 percent of the time, but instead drops in about 45 to 50 percent of the time. He can’t shoot freethrows, never could, but the lack of any sort of post game kills his effectiveness because he can’t dunk every time like he used to. His inability, or unwillingness to show on pick and roll defense murders the tem D almost as much as Nash’s inability to stay in front of anyone. Add to all of this Shaq’s obvious influence on Amare, and well, the Suns were better off without the Big guy. Period.

OUTLOOK

The main concern with this team, as with the Clippers, as with any team in general, but this team especially, is injuries.

It’s true that the Phoenix medical staff has some sort of magical elixir that has helped Hill, Shaq and Nash remain relatively healthy where other medical staffs have failed (Miami, Orlando). Not to mention the amazing recovery of Amare from microfracture knee surgery. But, with 4/5 of their starters over 30, and 3/5 of them over 34, it’s imperative that health prevails.

Even under the best circumstances, however, this team just doesn’t seem to have enough to get through the Lakers, Rockets, or Hornets. Depending on how the Spurs lineup shakes out, the Suns might have enough to conquer them.

The other major problem is defense. The Suns perimeter defense has not been addressed despite the additions of Dragic (unproven, probably not ready) and Matt Barnes (good, but not great). Shaq was brought in to defend Duncan and clog the middle. Although Shaq does take up space down low, he is horrible with pick and roll defense and can barely account for his own responsibilities on D, let alone try to make up for Nash's deficiences. Amare is in the same boat. He's not even good enough on his own man. That's why Marion was so important. He could contribute in rebounds, blocks, steals and points, plus 3s, and yet still vastly help make up for Nash's poor perimeter defense. 

Let’s face facts. The presence of Shaq takes away what was super special about Nash. Everyone credits Nash as the orchestrator of the Seven Seconds or Less Offense. This might be true, but the special skill set of Marion made it possible to run that style. Without Marion, Nash is no longer special. Well, without Marion and with Shaq, Nash loses his specialness. Nash needs the ball in hands to create, he drives to the basket, and then kicks it out or brings it back out himself, always looking to create. With Shaq and Amare both clogging the lane, Nash no longer has those angles, or the freedom to run about. Sure, when Shaq sits, the team can run-n-gun. That's great for the regular season and all, but come playoff time, Shaq will need to play a major role. Just look at last year's playoffs to see how ineffective Nash became in a slowed down, half court offense. And if Nash isn't killing the other team on offense, then he's really just hurting his own team because his defense is horrible (not for lack of effort). 

Marion helped ease that burden because of his great defense. He was the whole package. 

Marion’s like the Pippen to Nash’s Jordan, on a smaller, non-championship, non-best player ever level. Nash gets all the credit, but it’s not like Nash was transcendent before he met Marion. Nash went from averaging 7.5 assists with the Mavericks, one of the most offensively charged teams in the league at the time (they were coached by Nellie remember), to double digits for four straight years. Credit D’Antoni, sure, but credit him more so for recognizing the talent he had on his team.

Of course Marion benefited from all of Nash’s alley-oops and no-look dimes, etc. But Nash needs Marion more than Marion needs Nash. We’ll have to wait and see how well Nash blends with a half-court offense. My guess, he falls out of the top five point guards in the league. His assists dropped from a season average of 11.1 to 7.8 per contest against the Spurs in the playoffs. I don't know how else to say this, but Shaq, brought in to help win in the playoffs, will be the utlimate death knell for them once they get there.

Once again, the key to this whole season is the Shaq/Amare combo. If the team can all stay healthy and Amare can become a beast on defense like he’s a beast on offense, this team could rise to the top of the incredibly deep west and would have a terrific shot at bringing home Nash’s first and Shaq’s fifth ring. Even if Amare doesn't get that much better at D, this team, if healthy, will still be very good during the regular season. Sure, the regular season will be interesting with a probable blend of Nash's fastbreaking, mixed with a Shaq/Amare half court game. But, the regular season means nothing to this team. Nothing. 

Furthermore, all the stars will probably not align meaing that the Suns will experience injuries. Don't be surprised if Shaq plays no more than 60 games. This will seem okay during the season as the team will run more without him in the lineup, but, trying to reincorporate him into the offense come playoff time will, depending on the matchup, prove disastrous once again in the playoffs. 

If Amare doesn't improve at all on defense, nowhere near the “beast” he needs to be, the Suns will limp into the playoffs as a 6th or 7th seed and get bounced in the first or second round.

Here’s to putting all of our hope on Amare’s brains…