Jason (Upland): Who is your MVP for this season? Last week you said Lebron, CP3, then Kobe, despite Lebron only having a subpar 34-26 record (8 games over .500) in the WEAK East (who's team won't even be in the playoffs if they were in the West), while both CP3 and Kobe have their teams a whopping 20+ games over .500 on the TOUGH West. 
John Hollinger: First of all, a lesson on schedules -- 58 of the 82 games are identical regardless of which league you're in, so in terms of individual performance and team win-loss records they rarely make a large impact.
John Hollinger: Second, as far as MVP -- LeBron James's performance has been so far beyond that of any other player that, even with his team mired in fourth in the East, he HAS TO be the choice. Apologies to Kobe and CP3 and everyone else, but the guy is head and shoulders above the rest of the league right now.
Hollinger is called the scientist because of the different formulas and equations he has come up with in order to try and quantify a player’s effectiveness playing basketball. The method is a helpful tool in assessing a player, but does not encompass entirely what a each particular player brings.
Yet, he goes by his stat PER every year to choose his MVP regardless of what he might claim. That's why I believe he chose Dirk last year. He uses his PER system to back his claims. This year, Lebron has the top PER in the league and Hollinger is backing that claim by touting the King as the MVP.
In order to make a name for yourself, you’ve got to attack the big man on the totem pole, so I’m going after Hollinger. I’m going to use his stats to prove that Kobe is the true MVP.
Brief Intro
Over the course of the past few years, the MVP has been decided in a variety of ways. Nash won twice because of his overall impact on the league and his team—the posterboy for the pass-first, makes-his-teams-better type player. With supporting casts that have included Amare Stoudamire, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa and Raja Bell, Nash has failed to win a championship. Failed to even make it to the finals. Call it bad luck, call it injuries, call it fact. The 05-06 season, Kobe and Lebron both had better seasons.
Dirk won it last year because he was the best player on the team with the best record. Again, Kobe only got 42 wins. Not enough.
This year, however, despite Kobe playing on the best team in the best conference of perhaps all time, according to Hollinger, Lebron's statistics outweigh that fact.
It’s most definitely still too early to make this call, seeing as there are 22 +/- games left in the season. But, it’s all the craze right now, and the craze seems largely to be based on bias. Kobe supporters point to his work ethic on both the defensive end and offensive end. Lebron supporters point to the identical 2 steals a game, and Lebron’s 1 block per game, a half block better than #24.
Still the arguments continue. Just Look at the Lakers record. Just look at their supporting cast. But Kobe’s sharing the rock so much better. Bron’s averaging 7.5 assists to Kobe’s 5.3. But Kobe plays in the West. Uh, did I mention Pau Gasol?
Lebron is clearly doing more statistically…
Better Stats
Kobe Lebron
PER: 24.9 30.4
PPG: 28.3 30.8
APG: 5.3 7.4
RPG: 6.1 8.0
SPG: 2.0 2.0
BPG: 0.5 1.0
TS%: 58 57
TOV: 3.4 3.4
Lebron trumps Kobe in the PER and stat department. His numbers are much better all across the board except for shooting percentage. Yes, Lebron shoots a higher field goal percentage, but his threes and his free throws especially are far off Kobe’s marks.
Playing Better Playing Worse
Larry Hughes PER went from an 11.8 playing with Lebron to a 16.0 playing with the Bulls nearly identical to the rest of his career PER but moving much closer to his Wizards and Warriors days. Likewise, Drew Gooden went from a 12.7 to a 15.2 after switching away from the King, getting much closer to his career PER of 16.5.
They’ve both gotten better by leaving the team.
In comparison, Brian Cook's 10.2 PER is a lot worse than his career average of 14.2 (all with the Lakers). Cook and Kobe played really well together on the pick and pop. Maurice Evans is playing exactly the same 13.4 to 13.5 since he’s been traded. And, not surprisingly, Kwame is playing worse without Kobe.
Trevor Ariza (16 PER), Andrew Bynum (22.7 PER) and Pau Gasol (25 PER) are all having career years. Kobe is the only constant with all three.
Sure, Bynum’s success can be credited to the work he put in over the summer, to the Captain, to youth maturing. But nobody saw this coming (except maybe Mitch and Buss). And it’s apparent that Kobe has gone out of his way to get Andrew involved, oftentimes, as discussed in this blog previously, forcing things.
Team Chemistry
Of all the major trades, the only one that has gone without a hitch, is the Lakers. All world "team" guys like Nash, Kidd, Shaq, and yes, even Lebron, have seen problems. Some more major than others—the Suns have gone 3-6 with Shaq. In the same amount of games with Gasol, the Lakers were 8-1.
The Mavericks, losers of three straight, have tried desperately to keep pace with the Suns by going 4-5 with Kidd.
Bron Bron has faired better with a 5-3 record with his new comrades. But, let’s not kid ourselves, his victories have come against Memphis, Minnesota, Chicago, and New York. And two of their three losses came against the Bucks (really?) and Chicago. Not exactly the most fearsome opponents.
Meanwhile the Lakers two losses came against the Hawks, pre-Bibby (a game they had been winning until the last few minutes) and to a pretty good Portland team at Portland on the second night of a back to back. So far during Gasol’s tenure they’ve beaten Washington with Caron, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Dallas and a pretty good Sacramento team.
Before the trade, Lebron had five major victories over elite competition—two of those victories came against the Lakers without Gasol. He beat the Spurs on Jan. 17, Dallas in December. Boston in November. His Utah and GSW’s games were pre-Korver and pre-Wacko Jacko respectively. The most recent Boston win at the beginning of February was sans KG so it doesn’t mean as much. That’s it. The rest of the team’s he’s faced are sub-500 teams.
The Bynum/Kobe Lakers beat, Detroit, Denver (twice), GSW (with Jacko), Phoenix (twice), Utah (once with korver), and New Orleans. Houston was too early, they weren’t that good at the beginning of the season and the Spurs win doesn’t count because they were without Duncan.
That’s 13 victories against winning teams to Lebron’s 5. Of course, two of Bron's wins came against the two teams Los Angeles has yet to beat--the Celtics and Spurs.
Strength of Schedule
Hollinger uses this statistic along with other factors in determining his statistical power rankings (which the Lakers are currently holding the number one spot with the best point differential in the league). For detailed information on how his system works, check http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Rankings-Intro.
The Lakers have faced the second strongest schedule of any team currently in the playoffs both east and west, behind only Dallas. .508 to .512. The Cavs on the other hand are 19th on the list with a .496 SOS.
Nash’s Suns are 23rd while Chris Paul’s Hornets are 24th in SOS for those of you wondering about Paul and his crazy stats.
Injuries
Lebron has lost key players in Varejao, Pavlovic, Marshall, Gibson, and Ira Newble (although all have played more than 25 games). He himself sat out five games due to a sprained left index finger. The Cavs lost all of them.
You need look only as far as Kobe’s right pinkie (torn ligament) to understand the meaning of that fact.
But just for the record, Andrew Bynum has been out for 7 weeks and counting. Ariza too. Mihm is done for the season. Walton, Sasha, Vlad Rad, and Turiaf have all spent time on the DL.
Carrying a Team By Himself
Lebron is the superhuman weight lifter when it comes to team carrying. He’s throwing up triple doubles and near triple doubles almost every night. There is no more awesome talent than Lebron. But being the most physically blessed athlete doesn't make you the MVP. Carrying your team through the seasons and into the playoffs does. And Lebron did that last year and is looking to do it again this year.
Lebron supporters will rightfully point to the three game losing streak amidst the 3-5 skid the Lakers underwent after losing Bynum and before getting Gasol. But looking closely at the opponents, it’s not too damning of a record. Also, you have to remember that Bynum was replaced by Kwame Brown who promptly went out and turned the ball over 7 times in 25 minutes in his first start as Bynum’s replacement. Now, I’m a Kwame supporter, but only in conjunction with Bynum. Kwame can’t be a starter.
Elite Stats
During that stretch with Kwame starting, Kobe had to account for Bynum’s loss. That meant rebounds and points.
Kobe had a 40 point game and a 39 point game as well as two games with 11 assists. Without the Bynum’s rebounding ability, Kobe took it upon himself to account for that loss. He averaged 30 ppg, 6.7 apg, 9.14 rpg, 1 spg, while shooting 49 percent.
The Lakers lost to the "fully-loaded”Matrix-ized-still-the-same-run-n-gunners-I-want-to-always-remember Suns. Kobe and Odom made a game of it but came up 8 points short. They then lost to the Spurs in a game which they crushed the defending champs in the first half, and then got mauled in the second. They lost to a full strength Dallas team. And their last loss pre-Gasol was against a full strength Detroit team with a 3 pointer at the buzzer by Prince (reminiscent of that Thomas 3 in game 6 of 05). So, it’s not like the Lakers were facing srubs. That’s four mighty good teams. Pre-trade Phoenix was number one in the West. Dallas was second to New Orleans in the Southwest. And the Spurs are and were and will be the Spurs.
Pile Kobe’s Shoulder-carrying stats with Lebron’s season-of-carrying-my-team
Kobe Lebron
PPG: 30 30
APG 6.7 7.5
RPG: 9.17 8.5
SPG: 1 2
FG%: 49 49
Pretty similar. Kobe faced six elite teams in Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Denver, Cleveland, and Detroit. Lebron’s numbers are spaced out over an entire season.
“Team Player” Statistics:
Everybody talks about how much better Lebron makes everyone around him. Let’s take a look. In 8 games, here’s how the new editions have fared playing with the King.
w/Lebron pre-trade
Smith: 17.4 Bulls: 17.1
Wallace: 12.6 Bulls: 12.0
West: 10.7 Seattle: 10.0
Szczerbiak: 9.3 Seattle: 15.9
Wallace, West and Smith have all taken small PER boosts. Wallyworld has seen a sharp 6.6 point decline however.
Now here’s the differences with the Laker’s new editions in 16 games.
Gasol: 25.2 Memphis: 20.7
Ariza: 17.2 Orlando: 12.9 (consecutive years of 16.3 before)
Ariza’s stint with Orlando shouldn’t count because he saw such extreme fluctuations in his minutes. Last year and the year before give proof to Ariza’s potential. Still, Ariza saw a 1 point increase while Pau’s is over 4 points.
Sure, Bron Bron’s new additions aren’t quite as nice and there are four of them, but in the East, those editions are comparable to Kobe’s additions in the West.
Lakers fans have become excellent at pointing out all of the non-statistical evidence to support Kobe’s MVP candidacy. I have backed that evidence with hard stats. It’s quite clear who the MVP this year is. Stats don’t lie.
