Joe's 2011 Gameday Preview: Bears at Saints

Following the much-heralded destruction of the Atlanta Falcons in week one, the Chicago Bears fly down to Louisiana to take on the New Orleans Saints. Many analysts have mentioned the Bears’ recent success against the Saints, but all of those contests have been in Chicago and typically in less than stellar conditions. This Sunday the Bears will be in the Superdome, where the Saints will clearly have the advantage. But do they have the advantage on the field? Let the dissection begin!

In week one, the Saints fell to the Green Bay Packers in an entertaining shoot-out that saw little in the way of defense, save for the game-ending stop by the Pack on which Sean Payton took the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands and put it into the gut of rookie Mark Ingram. I bet Payton won’t have similar miscues in their home opener. Facing Drew Brees, the defense will always be in for tough match-up, but as we saw in their game against Green Bay, just one turnover can go a long way. Brees is extremely accurate, but he’ll need to focus on getting the ball out quickly against a Bear defensive line that will get pressure rushing only four. Where the Bears will probably get pressure is along the interior, between center Olin Kreutz (yep) and left guard Carl Nicks. Henry Melton and Amobi Okoye should take advantage of their familiarity with Kreutz, who gave up more than a few free rushes at Brees. That being said, Peppers still has the advantage over either offensive tackle, so let's start making Brees-sandwiches!

With Marques Colston out with a broken collarbone, Brees will be without his biggest receiver. Lance Moore is expected to play after missing week one, but without top target Colston the Saints receivers are merely under-sized complementary pieces with nothing to complement.  That falls perfectly for the Bears, who have shorter than average corners. Payton has to try and balance his offense with the run, something that typically doesn’t fly with the Bear defense. Pierre Thomas is a “good but not great” running back. His rookie back-up Mark Ingram will get some carries, which could be an opportunity for ball-hawking defenders to get a strip. Who the Bears need to be concerned with is Darren Sproles. Just as with Devin Hester, Sproles is a dangerous return man and a terror in open space. One missed tackle could spring him for a long gain and a trip to the scoreboard. Chicago’s speed at linebacker should negate Sproles’ for the most part, but it’s never a guarantee with a player that explosive. Safety Chris Harris will be out for today’s game, meaning Major Wright (and a missed tackle or two) will get the start.

Unlike the Falcons who prefer to rush only four, the Saints are a heavy blitzing squad, led by D-coordinator Gregg Williams. Mike Martz will have to respond by leaving his running backs and/or tight ends in protection more often than he’d prefer. Keeping Jay Cutler on his feet is paramount however, because if he gets time he can shred this secondary. Starting corner Tracy Porter will be out with an injury and safety Roman Harper will play despite an ankle injury. The openings will be there for Cutler, even if Roy Williams is sitting out with his groin issue. Where Martz can’t get lackadaisical is on the ground. Matt Forte is clearly their best offensive talent, and running the ball 25+ times is always a recipe for success. Getting screen passes to Forte and Hester will take advantage of the blitzing Saints, leaving them open for big plays and taking pressure of the offensive line. The Saints defensive line is solid inside with Sedrick Ellis and Aubrayo Franklin, but they’re inexperienced on the outside, with Cameron Jordan getting snaps at end because of Will Smith’s suspension. There will be points on the field for the taking if Martz can take advantage.

The Saints are five point favorites at home.

I feel the Bears will keep it closer than five, but could still end up losing just because of the Superdome advantage.

Three to four. Darren Sproles will be responsible for at least two.

Want the NFC to continue to take you seriously? Drop these New Orleans clowns and get to 2-0 so there’s breathing room when you take on the Packers next week.

Enjoy the game everyone! Bear down and Happy Jay Cutler Day!