Joe's 2011 Gameday Preview: Packers at Bears

Nearly eight months removed from their collapse in the NFC Championship game, the Chicago Bears get a shot at (way less significant) revenge on Sunday when they welcome in the Green Bay Packers to Soldier Field. There’s no need to delve into the importance of this historic NFL rivalry, so let’s get right into the match-up’s created by the current rosters.

Coming off a week of criticism and concern for Chicago’s pass protection stemming from the six sacks and multiple hits Jay Cutler took at the hands of the blitz-happy Saints, the Bear offensive line won’t get any breathers this week. Green Bay’s edge rushers are dangerous, no matter which one is coming. Clay Matthews is obviously tops on that list, so he’ll be moved around to take advantage of his speed against either offensive tackle. J’Marcus Webb doesn’t get low enough to off-set Matthews’ speed and Frank Omiyale is just plain terrible. Lance Louis might get back on the field at guard, but it won’t fix the problem. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers also likes to blitz safety/corner/linebacker Charles Woodson, creating several different looks using the All-Pro. He can blitz because he’s got the most under-publicized shut-down corner in the NFL in Tramon Williams and an excellent nickel corner in Sam shields.

Without receiving tight ends to draw linebackers away from the line of scrimmage, Green Bay’s outside rushers are going to find their target more often than not unless Mike Martz alters the gameplan. He’ll need to force-feed the ball to Matt Forte with ACTUAL RUNNING PLAYS. Nineteen screen passes to the running backs won’t get it done. Another factor that necessitates an increase on hand-offs are the injuries in the wide receiving corps. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s most reliable target, won’t be on the field because of the chest injury he sustained last week. Roy Williams will likely be on the field, but he may not be 100% because of his groin. Cutler will also get help from injuries, as starting Packer safety Nick Collins went out in last week’s contest with a season-ending neck injury. There are going to be holes in the Packer D in the middle of the field, but I’m not sure Cutler will have the time to make those throws or if the few healthy receivers will know to exploit them.

You know who has plenty of healthy receivers? The freaking Packers, that’s who. Whether it’s the explosive Greg Jennings, the veteran Donald Driver, the consistent Jordy Nelson or the mega-tight end Jermichael Finley, Aaron Rodgers’ arsenal is fully stocked. They haven’t needed to run the ball in the first two weeks, instead choosing to air it out. James Starks is averaging 71 yards on the ground per outing, but the Bears will probably lock him down early. Starks might get garbage time yards, but if the Bears can keep the big plays down, he won’t get any impactful stats. The Packer offensive line has had its issues this season, especially on the outside. Chad Clifton is a solid left tackle, but he could get exposed against Julius Peppers. Safeties Chris Harris and Major Wright are both game-time decisions, so Aaron Rodgers is going to look downfield early and often to exploit whatever back-up is next to Brandon Meriweather. It could be a long day for Lovie Smith’s defense. Rodgers is liable to go off, despite his past “troubles” against the Bears. Dude’s pretty good, so those troubles will end eventually.

Green Bay is favored by four on the road.

I’m not excited about our chances, I’ll be perfectly honest. I feel like I know what I’ll get from the Packers, which is more than I can say for the Bears. I think Green Bay takes this one comfortably.

Ninety. Mostly resulting from hits on Cutler.

Keep Jay on his feet. If he goes down, so do you.

Cheer on Bear fans!