If you’re looking to predict the outcome of the Bears match-up this weekend, take a look at the last three contests for Chicago. They were stomped by Green Bay, then did the stomping against St. Louis, and were underfoot again versus Minnesota. Following that pattern, the Chicago Bears should whip out their steel-toed boots when the Jaguars come to town this Sunday. Then again, when do these Bears ever follow the formula?
If Lovie Smith and the offensive coaching staff have even a rudimentary football acumen (and I’m not confident they do), they’ll realize that an effective rushing attack is the key to beating the Jaguars. Normally a strength, Jacksonville’s rush defense has sagged this season, dropping to 20th in the league and allowing 115 yards a game and 4.3 yards a carry. That plays into the hands of Matt Forte and the offensive line, who rush for the same 115-yard average, which ranks 17th in the NFL. Pro Bowl caliber cornerback Rashean Mathis is out for the Jaguars, which will make throws into the secondary safer for Kyle Orton after unleashing his inner Grossman last week. Now it’s on the wide receivers and tight ends to get separation so Orton can find them downfield. Otherwise it won’t matter who is playing across the line of scrimmage. There’s only one offensive injury of note for the Bears: Fullback Jason McKie has missed every practice so far this week, making it more likely that undrafted rookie Jason Davis will start his second NFL game.
Defensively the Bears have not been so lucky when it comes to avoiding injuries. Defensive tackle Dusty Dvoracek tore his right biceps on the second play of the game, ending his season. It’s a disappointing end to a promising season for Dvoracek, who has been a significant proponent of Chicago’s run defense. Nathan Vasher has been lost with a fractured right hand. Defensive end Adawale Ogunleye hasn’t practiced this week with a shoulder injury but is still listed as probable. Hunter Hillenmeyer has a lingering Achilles issue that kept him on the sidelines for most of the slaughter in Minnesota. Lance Briggs, Mike Brown, and Tommie Harris have each sat out practices this week to rest and recuperate. With the punishing ground game of the Jaguars behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, there’s a chance more names will be showing up on next week’s injury report.
As far as strategy goes, it’s fairly straight-forward: shut down the run and pressure the quarterback. Unfortunately, that’s been the idea going into most games this season, and the Bears have struggled in the latter endeavor. David Garrard doesn’t have the receiving threats for a career performance, but he’s just as good a QB as the other names that have torched the Chicago secondary. It’s a dangerous match-up for Chicago, since they will need a strong finish as well as a good old fashioned Minnesota implosion to reach the playoffs. In a lackluster NFC North, 9-7 may be all that’s needed to win the division. At 6-6, the Bears have little room for error. Now they need to play like it.
