The Saints are marching in to Solider Field tonight. Ugh. (That exclamation is directed at both the overused lyric reference and the impending contest.) In the midst of a fight for their playoff lives, the Bears and Saints can ill afford another loss on their records. One team is going to walk off the field wondering what went wrong this season while the other will keep fighting to extend theirs. If the Bears expect to defeat the top-ranked aerial assault that is Drew Bress and the Saints, Lovie Smith’s defensive expertise must be in full effect.
Shutting down Brees has not been an easy task this season, and his numbers serve as the evidence. He is tied with San Diego’s Philip Rivers for the league lead in touchdowns with 26 and ranks first in passing yardage with 4100 with three weeks remaining. He completes just over 65% of his attempts and has been sacked only ten times through his thirteen outings. It doesn’t bode well for the Bears, whose defense has been particularly vulnerable to air attack. Corners Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher have underperformed this season, with Tillman being burned on numerous big gains and Vasher plagued by injuries. The only statistic that plays into their favor is that Brees is tied for second most interceptions in the league with 14, a sign that turnovers may be had on the windy field of Chicago. The Bears will surely get their opportunities since the Saints are not a threat to run the ball, in spite of the 180 plus yards they gained on the Falcons last Sunday. Drew Brees will drop-back quite a bit, ensuring that two or three throws will be up for grabs. Chicago needs only to do the grabbing. If they can’t capitalize on their chances, the Bears will be overwhelmed by the weaponry Coach Sean Payton has at his disposal. Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston, and Reggie Bush all have the ability to break down defenses in various ways, but it is Bush that will be the x-factor for the Saints. His triple threat as a running back, wide receiver and punt return specialist could expose the Bears’ defensive schemes if utilized correctly. Lovie Smith must ensure his defenders are put in the best position to make plays in order to give his offense enough possessions to match the Saints’ point output.
Breakout rookie running back Matt Forte figures to factor heavily into the Bears offensive game plan on Thursday. If he has a successful night carrying the football, Chicago can keep Brees on the sideline by controlling the time of possession. However, that plan would require converting a high percentage of their third downs, which has been a glaring short-coming of the Bears offense as of late. Kyle Orton shouldn’t feel too much pressure, as not only will Forte shoulder the bulk of the offensive production, but the Saints’ pass defense ranks 26th in the NFL. That fact will make it easier for Orton to avoid throwing an interception in his third straight game. Watch for Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark to exploit a weak line-backing corps while Devin Hester abuses the secondary on deep routes. As Marty Booker is listed as doubtful with injured ribs, it seems Brandon Lloyd has a shot to make it out of Lovie’s doghouse. Don’t ask me why our once number once wide-out has lost favor with the coaching staff, because I couldn’t fathom a reason. Lloyd missed a long stretch of time with a knee injury, but that’s no reason to leave him buried on the bench. Hester can’t be the only threat at the position, and Rashied Davis is not sure-handed enough to be a dependable receiver. With such an average list of talent, any legitimate option must be explored to the fullest degree, and Lloyd is that option. Unfortunately, I’m confident he isn’t a factor in Chicago’s future plans, which is normal for incoming veterans wide-outs. It’s just the latest in a long list of confusing personnel decisions by Lovie Smith.
Desperation is the prevailing theme for tonight’s throw-down in Chi-Town. Each team will experience relative offensive success, but it’s the play of their defensive units that will decide who continues to strive for the post-season. Chicago will need to make the most of any turnovers they are lucky enough to produce by scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. The Bears could be out of the playoffs after four quarters are over, a fact of which they are well aware. I’m not ready for this season to be meaningless yet, so I’ll be cheering my hardest tonight. All you Bear fans should do the same.
