Joe's Gameday Preview: Packers at Bears

Why is it that recent late-season meetings between the Bears and Packers hold little to no significance? Oh wait, I remember now. Because one of these teams decides to be out of it by week ten. This year its the Bears' turn. Each squad has gone through their own specific roller-coaster rides, but while the Bears have been on the The Whizzer and are in the midst of projectile vomiting, the Green Bay Packers have ridden Batman: The Ride six times and are ready for more. How's that for an analogy? Sunday's divisional match-up at Soldier Field will feature two teams going in opposite directions.

While the Bears may be hanging their hat on how close their week one loss to Green Bay was (in spite of four Cutler picks), this is not the same Green Bay. Their defense is among the best in the NFL and their offense has found a groove under their now-protected quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They've been running the ball effectively if nothing else and shouldn't have any problems dissecting a Bears defense that lacks any real continuity. If Chicago is to have a chance against the Packers offense, their pass rush must routinely put Rodgers on the ground with pressure from their front four.

Adding to my dim outlook on this contest is Lovie Smith's ridiculous defensive personnel decision. Last week against the Rams he started Kevin Payne and Al Afalava at the safety spots because they're best against the run. That would come in handy against Steven Jackson (who still ran for over 100 yards). Despite having switching safeties multiple times during his tenure, Smith for some reason feels a need to keep it the same this week, even if Payne and Afalava are exposed in pass coverage. I assure you, they will be, and that is squarely on Lovie's head. Danieal Manning, while certainly more suited to play the nickel position, should be back at free safety in order to put the best coverage men on the field. Stopping the Packers' aerial assault should be Lovie's main concern, but he's not putting his team in the best position to succeed at it.

Switching sides, Jay Cutler should fare much better than his trip to Lambeau. Two things support my position: First, it's a home game. Second, it's not at night or in prime-time. The problem is the offensive line is the same amount of awful no matter what time it is. Chris Williams didn't look all that great at left tackle last Sunday, but at least I know he still has a pair of knees. (Sorry Orlando Pace.)  I'd say running the ball would help keep that pressure off Jay, but we all know that's an unlikely prospect. Chances are we'll have to air it our at least 30 times and probably over 40. That being the case, I want to see 6-8 catches from Greg Olsen and 15-20 from my wide receivers. 

Message to the team: If you're not motivated for this game, you shouldn't be in football.  You can put a roadblock in front of Green Bay's playoff hopes. You'd also be one game under .500 if you're victorious, so I'd be a fan of that too. 

Prediction: Green Bay is currently favored by four, which seems like a small margin to me. This feels like at least a ten point win for the Packers, but my Bears always manage to win games they shouldn't.

Avoid getting too worked up over this one, win or lose. Still, I'd like nothing better tomorrow than to see a win by the lake front. Here's (mildly) hoping.