Joe's Opening Drive: Wild-Card Sunday

January 10, 2010

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Joe Anello

Joe's Opening Drive: Wild-Card Sunday

 

After the Cowboys and the Jets dominated their opponents to move onto the divisional round, we've got some great action on tap today with a physical match-up in New England and a (hopefully) high-flying contest in the Arizona desert. Here's the Opening Drive of Wild-Card Sunday!

(9-7) Baltimore Ravens at (10-6) New England Patriots
1:00PM ET CBS

After a deep playoff run last year, the Ravens struggled to find consistency this season on the defensive of the ball, much to everyone's surprise. Running back Ray Rice has the ability to pound the ball as well as catch passes out of the backfield for sophomore QB Joe Flacco. Receiver Derrick Mason hasn't been as dependable in recent weeks, but he still managed another 1000-yard season. Tight end Todd Heap caught 6 touchdowns this season, second on the team. Keep an eye on wide-out Demetrius Williams, who might be Flacco's best downfield threat. On defense, safety Ed Reed should be healthy enough to play after nursing a groin injury for part of the regular season. Ray Lewis is as demonstrative as ever, but that defensive line featuring Haloti Ngata and Trevor Pryce will be the biggest factor in whether Baltimore can pull off the upset.

In New England, things just aren't the same. Tom Brady may be the comeback player of the year, but he's not playing at his best yet. He'll be without Wes Welker until next year, so rookie receiver Julian Edelman has to step in and be that possession receiver. Edelman won't have the experience, but he could be quicker than Welker. I don't think it will be a steep drop-off in production. Randy Moss should see all the double coverage he can handle. Back Laurence Maroney has come on in the second half of the year to bring a running game back to New England. For all the offensive talent, the Patriots' defense has been the problem all year. Young, inconsistent and inexperienced, the secondary has made too many mistakes. They aren't pressuring opposing quarterbacks. It's difficult to win in the postseason with that combination.

Analysis: For Baltimore, it's simple. Hit Brady hard and often, but hit him legally. Their meeting earlier in the year is still being complained about by Raven defenders. That Pats secondary must protect against Flacco's deep ball or risk putting their offense in the tough position of being down to the Ravens defense.

Prediction: Patriots are favored with a 3.5 point spread. Tom Brady has never lost a home playoff game. Do I need to mention anything else? (Though I will say I'm not convinced they'll win by more than a field goal. Maybe you should take Baltimore to cover.)

(11-5) Green Bay Packers at (10-6) Arizona Cardinals
4:40PM ET FOX

After the shoddiest of starts at offensive line, the Green Bay Packers finally started to protect Aaron Rodgers as the season wore on after multiple tweaks. Rodgers has his second straight 4,000 yard season along with a corp of underrated receivers. (Donald Driver and Greg Jennings each went over 1,000 yards.) Ryan Grant racked up over 1200 yards this season, proving the Pack can get it done on the ground. Tight end Jermichael Finley is athletic enough to expose nearly any defense. Green Bay's defense is just as strong as its offense. Charles Woodson has been making plays all over the field and from every position. Rookie linebacker Clay Matthews has ten sacks on the season, making him a stand-out in a 3-4 unit with Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk.

What can we say about Arizona? They've been wildly inconsistent, but that was their problem going into the playoffs last year when they went to the Super Bowl! Kurt Warner will likely be without receiver Anquan Boldin, but the Cardinals are 5-1 without Boldin. Larry Fitzgerald will have a monster game either way. Now that rookie RB Beanie Wells is playing a first-round pick, the Cardinals have a semblance of a ground game. The biggest injury is to corner Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, who is questionable with knee and toe issues. If he's not 100%, the other 10 guys on defense have to pick up the slack.

Analysis: Each team has a difficult task defensively. Either quarterback is capable of putting up 35 points, so whichever defense can cause the most confusion can put their team in the best position to win. Kurt Warner will throw at least once interception today, it's just a matter of if it stops there. Green Bay's running game is far better than Arizona's, so less pressure will be on Rodgers.

Prediction: Green Bay is the road favorite with a 2.5 point spread. I love the Packers to win in what should be the funnest game of the weekend. 

Enjoy another great day of NFL playoff action! 

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