Joe's Opening Drive: Divisional Saturday

January 16, 2010

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Joe Anello

Joe's Opening Drive: Divisional Saturday

In case you haven't heard, we're knee-deep in the NFL playoffs. Today kicks-off the best weekend of football all year. Eight teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt, with the top seeds in each conference joining in on the action. Let's not waste any time, here's the Opening Drive for Divisional Saturday in the NFL!

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
4:30PM ET FOX
 

After last Sunday night's shoot-out in the desert, the Cardinals head to the Superdome, ready to repeat last year's post-season success. Quarterback Kurt Warner has a knack for playing his best football in the playoffs and last week was no exception. He is expected to be without receiver Anquan Boldin for the second straight week, but that will be a game-time decision. He'll still have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston on the outside, so he'll be just fine. Arizona shocked Green Bay with their commitment to the running game last week, gaining over 150 yards on the ground. Concerns arise when discussing their defense, but as we saw in overtime last week, they can make plays when they need them. Darnell Dockett, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson all have thr ability to affect the outcome.

In New Orleans, they haven't seen a meaningful game in a month since they suffered their first loss of the season to the Cowboys. Followed up by a shocking loss to Tampa Bay and a give-in to Carolina, Drew Brees and the Saints may have significant rust to shake off to start this one. On the plus side, running back Pierre Thomas and tight end Jeremy Shockey will be back from injury, giving Brees his full complement of weapons. Defensively, the Saints lagged in the final stretch of the regular season, but still ended up leading the league with a whopping 39 takeaways. Resigning Deuce McAllister for the post-season won't do much more than provide some inspiration and crowd fervor. 

Analysis: The Cardinals are playing their best offense of the year while the Saints have struggled as of late. I'm also not confident the New Orleans defense can force Warner into many mistakes unless their pass rush has markedly improved in their time off.  Arizona proved that even without Boldin their offense is explosive enough to match up with any in football, but the real factor will be Beanie Wells and the running game. The Saints are weak against the run, so look for plenty of Wells carries out of the backfield to soften them up.

Prediction: The Saints are currently favored by 7! That's a huge number. I won't pick the Cards for the straight-up win, but they will beat that spread at the very least. It'll be a close shoot-out.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
8:15PM ET CBS
 

Ray Lewis and the Ravens made the most of their playoff berth by completely dominating the New England Patriots last weekend. Now they travel to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy to meet Peyton Manning. QB Joe Flacco's hip injury was overblown, so he'll be ready to sling it downfield if he has to. However, I won't be surprised if the Ravens come out with the same gameplan as last weekend, running the ball 52 times and only attempting ten passes. Lewis and safety Ed Reed keep their emotional defense in check and disciplined against Manning or it could be a long day.

For Jim Caldwell's Colts, they are once again attempting to make a post-season run after essentially taking a vacation at the end of the regular season. They are 0-3 when they try it. You would think Caldwell would know better, but I guess he's banking on his club's seven straight wins against the Ravens. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis did not sack Flacco in their 17-15 win over Baltimore earlier this season, but they may not get a chance to today. The Colts will need to shut down Ray Rice and the running game in order to give Manning and the offense the most possessions possible. 

Analysis: Joe Flacco will need to throw the ball more than ten times today, despite the Ravens' hopes. Freeney must take those opportunities to plant Flacco, especially on third down. If the Colts defense can stay fresh, they can hold the Ravens running game under wraps. Baltimore can't have unnecessary penalties or beat themselves if they hope to keep up with the Colts, because they can't match Indy's point output.

Prediction: Colts are favored by 6.5. It could end up being a close game, but I'll take the Colts to cover that spread.

Enjoy the best weekend of the year! I'll be back with a preview of tomorrow's games! 

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