Here it is: the last weekend of real football. Conference Championship Sunday is here and isn't lacking for drama. From Brett Favre and Peyton Manning's legacy to the Jets' dominating defense or the surge in New Orleans, every team is a great story. Who do I think will make it to the Super Bowl in Miami? Read on in this edition of the Opening Drive!
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
2:00PM ET CBS
If the New York Jets weren't crazy enough already, just wait if they somehow manage to defeat Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. They will be insufferable for the two weeks heading into the Super Bowl, and I'm not even talking about the fans. That team is boisterous and confident thanks to their equally as cocky head coach Rex Ryan. All-Pro corner Darelle Revis will be locked against Reggie Wayne, leaving Dallas Clark for the Jet safeties or linebackers to handle. New York's defense should have no problems shutting down the Indy running game, so the pressure is on their secondary to cover Manning's complement of receivers. On the offensive side of the ball, Ryan must ensure rookie QB Mark Sanchez isn't put in dangerous situations. If all goes to plan the Jets will have 40-plus rushing attempts with Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones, keeping Sanchez somewhere in the 18-24 pass attempt range. Any more than that and the Jets cannot win.
When Jim Caldwell decided to shut it down in week 16 against the Jets, I'm sure he didn't give it a second thought that he could see Rex Ryan's scrappy bunch again in the playoffs. Now Caldwell's highly criticized decision will be under the microscope again as his Colts welcome in the team they let into the postseason. Now we all know about the prolific offense powered by Peyton Manning's brilliance, but the Colt running game has been missing all season. They ran the ball a healthy 25 times last week but only managed 42 yards. They use the pass to set up the run, but Manning will have no problem slinging it all day long like he has all year. What hasn't been addressed enough is the stellar play of the Colt defense this year and in their playoff game from last week. While everyone wants to debate Indy's offense vs the Jet defense, the Colts defense is the real key. If they can hold up against the Jets ground and pound attack early and force a few punts, they can eventually force Mark Sanchez to throw the ball late. Against Dwight Freeney and that pass rush, that's exactly what the Colts want.
Analysis: In the end, I think the Colts defense can have a greater effect on the Jet offense than the Jet defense can against Manning and the Colt offense. Revis will not shut out Wayne, but even if he does Dallas Clark should have a field day against the Jet safeties. Also, keep an eye on how long the Colt defense is on the field in the first half. If it's a close game, they could be exhausted going down the stretch.
Prediction: The Colts are favored by 8.5 points. I initially typed my preference to be the Jets keeping it close, but I'm sticking with Manning and the Colts. They'll cover.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
6:40ET FOX
After blowing up the supposedly superior Dallas Cowboys last week in Minnesota, Brett Favre and the Vikings are traveling to a different dome for the NFC title game, this time in New Orleans. Hopefully for coach Brad Childress he brought Adrian Peterson and his running game along for the ride. They'll need it to keep Drew Brees and the Saints offense on the sidelines. In an opposing dome, the Viking o-line must maintain their composure and avoid costly penalties that will put Favre in obvious passing situations. Percy Harvin is expected to play after missing practices all week with migraines. Minnesota's defense can rush the passer and stop the run with the best of the NFL, but they are weak in the secondary. Getting to Brees early and often could shift the balance in their purple-flavored-favor. Will Favre reach the Super Bowl and ignite sports nation in two weeks of hype?
Not if these Saints have anything to say about it. Drew Brees has had another outstanding season, but instead of last year's 8-8, his team is hosting an NFC title game for the first time in their history. Reggie Bush's break-out game against the Cardinals must repeat itself this week against an aggressive Viking defense. Sean Payton's offensive line won't have to protect Brees for long with his quick release, but if they want to hit plays down field they'll need to keep defensive end Jared Allen occupied. With ball-hawking ex-Viking and Packer safety Darren Sharper in the Saint secondary, he'll be well aware of Favre's tendencies and ball placement. If they can manage just one turnover and give their offense an extra possession somewhere, the Saints will win.
Analysis: I think Favre throws at least one interception and Peterson is held under 100 yards. Still, I don't think Favre will be affected by the crowd noise, but his line will. Brees' Saints have too many weapons to be defended completely even if Jeremy Shockey isn't 100 percent. It will be high-scoring, but the Saints can score more.
Prediction: Saints are favored by 3.5. I love them to cover that spread and send home the Vikings. (That and Minnesota sucks.)
Alright, get ready for some great NFL conference title action!
Keywords: Adrian Peterson, Brad Childress, Brett Favre, Darelle Revis, Darren Sharper, Drew Brees, Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts, Jared Allen, Jim Caldwell, Joe Anello, Mark Sanchez, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, NFL, NFL playoffs, Peyton Manning, Reggie Bush, Reggie Wayne, Rex Ryan, Sean Payton, Shonn Greene
