The wait is over. Super Bowl 44 is nigh. Manning versus Brees starts in mere hours. After prepping you for the game yesterday with separate previews of the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints, it's time to bring the two together for my Super Bowl predictions.
As you're enjoying commercials and stuffing your face with every snack food known to man, it's hard to remember there's a game to be watched. If you miss it, you could miss one of the most explosive Super Bowl match-ups in history. Behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, these offenses are always threats to hit the big play. That gives defensive coordinators headaches. Each defense will look to pressure the opposing QB early and often. Whoever best achieves that goal has the best chance to take home the coveted Lombardi Trophy.
Peyton Manning has evolved into a master of pass protection in the past few years, always knowing where the blitz is coming from and where to slide his linemen. New Orleans' front four won't be able to pressure Manning on their own, so mixing in blitzes effectively will be at the top of Saints coordinator Gregg Williams' to-do list. Unfortunately, Manning has the ability to expose any blitz at any time, taking those opportunities to hit a big play down the field. If the Saints can't surprise Manning with pressure, it will be a long day for that defense.
Unlike the Ravens or the Jets, the Saints defense can't shut down an offense. We saw it in the Minnesota game where their defense caused five turnovers but still gave up close to 500 yards of offense. Everyone has already mentioned it, but the Saints depend on turnovers. Peyton Manning won't give them the same chances that Brett Favre did. He always finds the open receiver, whether its superstar Reggie Wayne or rookie Austin Collie.
For Drew Brees, he needs to keep an eye on where Dwight Freeney is at all times. The Colts will attempt to pressure using only their front four most of the night like they have all season, regardless of Freeney's health. Drew must take advantage of that aggressive defensive line with dump-off passes to Reggie Bush and short throws over the middle. Speaking of Bush, he needs to have another Arizona-type game if his team is going to emerge victorious.
Most people would expect the Saints to focus on running the ball effectively and keeping Manning on the sidelines. That won't work and I think Sean Payton knows it. Manning will take advantage of every possession he gets, so the Saints must as well. Putting up touchdowns and not field goals is paramount in this match-up of two solid red zone defenses.
Alright, I've analyzed enough. Dwight Freeney will play at least a bit, we just won't know how well. With that in mind, here's my pick for Super Bowl 44.
Prediction: Picking the Colts has been my saving grace this post-season, picking them to win and cover the spread in every game. They've returned my confidence with a 2-0 record in their games. To break my 5-5 record in the playoffs, I'll stick with them today, even with a 4.5 point spread. Manning will capture his second Super Bowl and Jim Caldwell will be the first rookie HC to win the big one.
There you have it, football fans! Who ya got? I'll be back later to sort through some of the best prop bets of Super Bowl 44! Check back for my recap later tonight!
