Joe's 2010 NFL Season Preview: AFC South

With the Hall of Fame game being played this past weekend, the 2010-2011 NFL season is on the horizon. With teams in training camp and rosters being formed, I'll take you around the league in the coming weeks to preview each division. This week we start with the AFC South, a division dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. Will their run continue this year or will someone else take the division title? We'll go in order from worst to first from last year's season standings. Let's get it on!

Jacksonville Jaguars

Last year the Jags were plagued by injuries to their offensive line and inconsistency from the skill positions. Maurice Jones-Drew is still a talented running back in this league, but I'm not sold that his production will match the near-1400 yards and 15 touchdowns from last year. Torry Holt, Jacksonville's second-leading receiver last season, has departed for New England, leaving Mike Sims-Walker as the only wide-out of note on the roster. (Don't even mention Troy Williamson. He's a bust until otherwise noted.) Tight ends Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller will be integral to David Garrard's success this season, particularly in the red zone. With only 15 TD's and 10 interceptions last season, Garrard needs to step up this year if he's to keep his job. Head Coach Jack Del Rio is on the hot seat too.

As it is every year, the Jaguars spent another first round pick on a defensive lineman, this year taking DT Tyson Alualu. Paired with last year's first-round DE Derrick Harvey, the Jaguars need to see pressure on the opposing QB this season. Their 27th ranked pass defense only netted 14 sacks and 15 interceptions, paltry totals to be sure. Since the offense won't put up more than 20 points a game, the defense can't afford to struggle again... but they probably will.

Last year's record:  7-9

This year's prediction: 5-11

I'm sorry, Jacksonville hasn't sold me that they're going to get any better. In fact, they look worse. Sims-Walker is their only deep threat, MJD may not have the same legs after being pounded last season and David Garrard is a decent quarterback at best. With no significant upgrades to their secondary to help DB Rashean Mathis, expect another bad defensive showing this season, leading to major changes in Jacksonville.

Tennessee Titans

Obviously last year's Titans will be remembered for two things: fighting back to finish 8-8 after an 0-6 start (thanks to the return of Vince Young) and Chris Johnson's 2,000 rushing yards. This year's Titans are coming back with three rookie wide-outs in camp, looking for someone to add alongside Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage. Left tackle Michael Roos had a break-out season in 2009, helping Johnson reach the 2,000 yard plateau. 

Defensively, the  Titans are hoping first-round defensive end Derrick Morgan will make up for the loss of Tennessee mainstay Kyle Vanden Bosch to Detroit. Tennessee's typically hard-nosed defense got pushed around early last season, especially in that 59-0 loss to New England in the snow. Cortland Finnegan is under-sized but scrappy to lead the Titan secondary, which makes enough plays to give their offense a chance.

Last year's record: 8-8

This year's prediction: 9-7

The stability and athleticism Vince Young will bring at quarterback should help the offense (AKA Chris Johnson) out, but don't expect fireworks. This offense won't shock anyone. Their wide receiving corps still isn't up to snuff, unless Kenny Britt makes a giant step forward. CJ would love another 2,000 yard season, but defenses will be keying on him, daring Young to beat them through the air. The defense is younger on the line now, but replacing Albert Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch will be no easy task. Jeff Fisher has his squad going in the right direction, but I don't think they're good enough right now to make a post-season push. Adding a veteran wide-out in free agency would have been a huge help, but what do I know?

Houston Texans

For the past few years the pundits and experts have picked the Houston Texans as their pre-season "dark horse" in the AFC playoff race and every year the Texans have fallen short of those predictions. Matt Schaub took a giant leap forward in '09, playing 16 games and finally proving his durability and his worthiness of his contract. With 29 touchdowns, Schaub has the ability to lead a high-powered Texan offense that just re-upped with Andre Johnson, arguably the best receiver in the NFL. They drafted running back Ben Tate out of Auburn to provide a change of pace from lead back Steve Slaton, who only managed 437 yards last season. A healthy Owen Daniels at tight end means the Texan offense will be a force to be reckoned with.

The Texan defense is led by defensive end Mario Williams, who has justified his number one overall selection in the past two seasons. The linebacking corps is especially strong, led by DeMeco Ryans, but they'll be without 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing, who will be suspended the first four games after violating the league's performance enhancing substance policy. (Unless the Texans' owner convinces Roger Goodell otherwise.) CB Dunta Robinson left for Atlanta, leaving a hole in the Texan secondary, but if Williams has another monster year it will disguise their deficiencies. 

Last year's record: 9-7

This year's prediction: 9-7

I won't believe the Texans can get into the playoffs until they actually do it. Their offense will be fantastic and will score in the high 20's on a regular basis, but their secondary is suspect, which will lead to more shoot-outs in Houston. It's certainly possible for them to get to 10 wins, but the AFC wild card race is always a dog-fight. And of course, the AFC South is controlled by the next team...

Indianapolis Colts

Last year quarterback Peyton Manning won his fourth MVP award, setting the stage for the massive contract headed his way, even after a Super Bowl loss to the Saints. He's the machine (literally, dude's a robot) that makes the Colts go and the reason they win at least 12 games every season. Reggie Wayne is still a top 5 receiver, but he was slowed by injuries at the end of last year, which hampered the Colts in the playoffs. Getting receiver Anthony Gonzalez back and healthy will help Manning out, as if he needs it. Let's not forget the always dangerous Dallas Clark (who is a wide-out, no matter what the depth chart says) as well as the emerging Pierre Garcon. Unfortunately, Joseph Addai looks slower at the running back spot, necessitating the drafting of Donald Brown last year. If he falters in the first 5-6 weeks, look for Brown to garner a significant amount of carries. The Colt offensive line must get more physical this season if the running game is ever to be considered a real threat. Well... even if they don't, Peyton Manning will go berserk anyway.

It's hard to believe after last year's success that All-Pro safety Bob Sanders never even made it on to the field! Remember, when Sanders is healthy he's one of the best safeties in football. Unfortunately, he's often injured. Luckily all that time off has forced the Colts defense to improve, making for a better unit when Sanders returns (which he is expected to this season.) Jerry Hughes, the Colts' first-round draft choice, should find his way into the defense end rotation early and often, giving sack machines Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis much deserved rest on their way to another post-season berth. While the secondary is young (six rookies combined from the CB and safety positions), the Colts prefer speed and athleticism on the outside for their cover-2 scheme. Expect a few mistakes along the way, but Jim Caldwell will have them in the right spot when it matters.

Last year's record:  14-2

This year's prediction: 13-3

We know this story by now. Colts win an ungodly amount of games, sew up the division title, and then proceed to rest their starters the rest of the way. I doubt they'll go 14-0 again this season (But wouldn't it be crazy to see if they do? What does Caldwell do this year after losing the Super Bowl last season?), but there's nothing that says the Colts are in danger of falling off the face of the AFC South. As long as they have Manning and ten offensive players with a pulse, they'll get to 10 wins. Business as usual for Indy.

Come back soon for my next division preview!