You almost never know what you're going to get in the NFC South. With a "worst to first" story each year, are things finally settling in the South? Can the Saints repeat or are the Falcons ready to fly high? Here's my NFC South preview!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Obviously, first-year head coach Raheem Morris was expecting better than 3-13 when the regular season started. Unfortunately what followed was a mess of a campaign, complete with three different starting quarterbacks. After Byron Leftwich and Josh Johnson's failures, first-rounder Josh Freeman was finally tapped to fill the starting role. Throwing only 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions wasn't what he had in mind either. This season, Freeman won't be in a much better situation. While his top target Kellen Winslow is back at tight end, the second leading receiver Antonio Bryant was let go. This leaves Maurice Stovall, Arrelious Benn and Reggie Brown as Freeman's top threats. Yikes. If the offensive line can improve at all, perhaps Cadillac Williams can build off his 823 yard, 4 TD 2009 season.
Let's face it, this isn't the Tampa defense of 2000. While it was respectable against the pass (10th overall), the Bucs suffered mightily against the run, which won't help in a division against Carolina's two headed monster and Atlanta's Michael Turner. Third overall pick Gerald McCoy will drastically improve the interior of the Tampa defensive line, but they need better pass-rushers on the outside. Barrett Rudd and Geno Hayes aren't laughable linebackers, but they're not impact play-makers. Aside from the somehow still-playing Ronder Barber, every player in the secondary is 28 or younger. If Aqib Talib can finally put aside his off-the-field problems, he can become a star corner in the NFL.
Last year's record: 3-13
2010 prediction: 4-12
Oh, they'll improve... because they almost have to. I don't see enough explosiveness to tell me this team can put up more than 13-14 points a game unless Josh Freeman has a miraculous monster of a year. Even if the defense doesn't get torched each week, they simply can't make up for the shortcomings on offense.
Carolina Panthers
John Fox's Panthers completely reek of desperation, but their roster moves in the offseason suggest otherwise. They traded away safety Chris Harris to the Chicago Bears and let All-Pro defensive end Julius Peppers head the same direction via free agency. They released veteran starting quarterback Jake Delhomme and handed the keys to untested Matt Moore while drafting Jimmy Clausen out of Notre Dame to be the QB of the future. Fox is on the hot seat without question, but his offense will be very predictable. Once he returns from breaking his arm again, Steve Smith (douchebag) will get double-coverage all day and whatever quarterback is under center will hand it off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart 35-40 times a game. Rinse. Repeat.
With all the changes on defense, it's hard to believe the Panthers will be able to generate the kind of pressure on the quarterback to get more turnovers or stops than in recent years. Peppers will be awfully difficult to replace. The secondary is young, with CB Chris Gamble the only real name on the roster. Linebacker Jon Beason will have to have a stand-out year if the Panther defense will be able to slow down opposing rushing attacks, which was their weakness last season.
Last year's record: 8-8
2010 prediction: 6-10
Sorry Matt Moore, I just don't buy it. You might be serviceable, but you've started what, eight games in your career? And now you have two rookies backing you up? This is just asking for trouble. I would stack nine defenders in the box against Carolina and take the last two and double Steve Smith. Easy win.
Atlanta Falcons
Last season the Falcons under coach Mike Smith and second year QB Matt Ryan (who was injured a few games) completed their second straight winning season for the first time in franchise history. This season expectations are riding high from within the organization as well as from the rest of the NFL. Michael Jenkins is dependable at the wide-out spot and Roddy White is an emerging star in the league. Add in another year of Tony Gonzalez and the dual-threat of Jerious Norwood and Michael Turner at running back and this offense should pick up right where it left off last year.
Switching it up, the Falcon defense got roughed up last season when it came to defending the pass, ranking 28th overall. John Abraham only managed 5.5 sacks from his defensive end spot, far less than what you would expect from him. To be honest though, he hasn't been quite the same player since coming over from the Jets, but he can still get to double-digit sacks if motivated. Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson are decent corners, but they're not game-breakers. Mike Peterson is an aging linebacker. If the Falcon defense is going to succeed this year, they'll have to do it together. No one player will be able to do handle it alone.
Last year's record: 9-7
2010 prediction: 10-6
If Ryan stays healthy all season, I see no reason why the Falcons can't get to ten wins. They won't be as explosive as the Saints, but they can definitely make a push for a playoff slot in the NFC. If they falter though, it'll be because of the defense.
Nothing really to do with their success, but look at those cheerleaders!
New Orleans Saints
They were the Super Bowl champs last year. What else do you need to know? They have one of the top three quarterbacks in the league in Drew Brees and a gutsy coach in Sean Payton. Their offensive line doesn't get enough credit, which was so good last season the Saints could afford to trade tackle Jammal Brown to the 'Skins. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush offer the offense two completely different looks out of the backfield. Wide receiver Robert Meachem took a step forward last season catching 45 passes for 722 yards and nine touchdowns. Add his progression to a wide-out corps that already features Devery Henderson, and Marques Colston and Brees won't be lacking for weapons. Oh yeah, and Brees is pretty good.
Where the Saints could take a step backwards statistically in 2010 is on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive end Charles Grant left via free agency, taking his 5.5 sacks with him. Upgrading that void is Alex Brown, signed after he was released by the Bears. If Will Smith can reach 13 sacks like he did in 2009, the Saints will be fine on the line. Jonathan Vilma anchors a linebacker unit that is left extremely young after Scott Fujita's departure. In the secondary, corner Tracy Porter is poised to see an increased role coming off his Super Bowl clinching interception. First-round pick Patrick Robinson should see plenty of action, but Jabari Greer is one of the best corners no one's talking about. Veteran safety and expert interceptor Darren Sharper is back for another season, but he'll start it on the PUP list after microfracture surgery, meaning he'll have to sit out until at least week six.
Last year's record: 13-3
2010 prediction: 12-4
The offense is good enough to make up for the few defensive problems they'll have. However, I doubt the Saints will manage to create as many turnovers as they did last season, especially considering Sharper's decline/injury. They'll be playoff-bound for certain, likely as the repeating NFC South Champions. Will they repeat? Doubtful, but they have the tools to give it a valiant effort.
Scary.
