Joe's NFL 2010 Season Preview: AFC East

Aside from the lowly Bills, the AFC East is one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. Formely the play-house of the Patriots, the East is closer than ever now that the Jets and Dolphins are starting to catch up. Here's how I think the 2010 season will play out for these four teams. 

Buffalo Bills

During last season's inconsistent campaign, the Bills could never gain any momentum. Quarterback Trent Edwards failed to improve in his third year in the league, giving way to Ryan Fitzpatrick and even Brian Brohm. Despite the relative success of Terrell Owens' one-year stay (lead the team with 55 receptions, so yes, it was a success), the Bills offense was unproductive through the air, relying too heavily on a decent ground game led by Fred Jackson. This year, 9th overall selection C.J. Spiller will bring some desperately needed explosiveness to this ailing offense through various forms. Wide-outs Lee Evans and Josh Reed couldn't make enough deep catches to scare defenses that crowded the line of scrimmage last season, a trend that cannot continue. Worse yet, the offensive line was horrendous and doesn't look much improved.

Dick Jauron (and later Perry Fewell's) defense was the only aspect of the Bills that didn't give fans headaches. They weren't fantastic by any means, but they did rank 2nd overall in pass defense, so that has to count for something. Paul Posluszny is a good but not great linebacker. but he needs more help from the defensive line in front of him (who lost Aaron Schobel to retirement). In the secondary, corner Drayton Florence and safeties Jairus Byrd and Bryan Scott are actually quite formidable and will be able to slow down most receiving corps, but not stop them.

Last year's record: 6-10

2010 prediction:  3-13

With all of these early injuries to what were perceived as the few areas of strength for the Bills, my expectations are lower than they were already. They'll easily go 0-6 in the division unless Miami has a bad day. Otherwise this season is going to be brutal for Buffalo fans that are scared their team is eventually headed to Toronto. Their quarterback situation is messy, their defense is soft up front and the offensive line is porous. Brace for impact Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins

Two years removed from winning the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins have reloaded for another title run. Chad Henne emerged as a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL last season, despite not being able to stretch the field due to a lack of depth at the wide receiver position. The instigators of the Wildcat offense, the Dolphins are now committed to Ronnie Brown running those packages with the release of last year's second round pick Pat White. In what likely is his last season, Ricky Williams will still be adequately productive to spell Brown. The acquisition of receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos was a surprise one, completely changing the look of the Miami offense. Unfortunately, Davone Bess is the only other receiver worth worrying about initially, as the 'Fins traded away receivers Greg Camarillo and Tedd Ginn.

Defensive end Charles Grant brings his 13 sacks from 2009 over to a Dolphin defense that needed more pressure on the quarterback. Signing Karlos Dansby from Arizona gives Miami a linebacker with good pass coverage skills, which they've been lacking. It's even more necessary because the Dolphin secondary is shaky. Vontae Davis is likely the best of the bunch, but there may too much inexperience and too little depth to compete in a division with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Braylon Edwards, and Santonio Holmes.

Last year's record: 7-9

2010 prediction:  8-8

Make no mistake about it, the Dolphins are going to be vastly improved from a year ago, especially on offense. Henne looks to be an emerging star under center and Marshall's presence on the field will open things up considerably. Unfortunately they're still in the tough AFC East. Their defense won't be able to slow down the Patriots and their offense can't scare the Jets. They're the third best team in a three-team race.

Wait... Brandon who? What am I talking about again? 

New York Jets

After making it to the AFC championship game, the Jets are everyone's pick to make a run at greatness. In his second season, quarterback Mark Sanchez is hoping to prove all those pundits (as well as his loud-mouthed head coach) correct. GM Mike Tanenbaum has pulled out all the stops to improve the roster during the offseason, signing LaDainian Tomlinson, trading for Santonio Holmes and drafting Joe McKnight of USC. Shonn Greene is officially the lead back, but it's not known whether he can handle that amount of punishment. Braylon "Dropsies" Edwards gets open downfield but too often doesn't make the catch. 

We all know the Jet defense is predicated on corner Darelle Revis, who finally signed a more lucrative deal after holding out despite being under contract for three more seasons. Bart Scott still brashly heads up the linebackers, that now includes pass rusher and NFL pretty boy Jason Taylor in their ranks. Antonio Cromartie, acquired from San Diego, give the Jets possibly the best corner duo in the NFL. Drafting Kyle Wilson in the first round allows the Jets some flexibility at corner now that Revis is back. Despite the glut of talent on the Jets' defense, Revis allows them to play more aggressively, knowing he's locked down the offense's biggest threat. They needed him, and now they have him. Jets to the Super Bowl is back on... right?

Last year's record: 9-7

2010 prediction:  9-7

I don't like Mark Sanchez any time I see him. I just don't. I thought highly of him coming out of USC last year, but it just never seemed as if he was learning last year. To me, he's still at a college level mentally, having only started one season at USC and one season in the NFL. If he can pull it together and do more than just "manage" games, then the Jets can go all the way. He has the weapons, but I just don't see that happening. Their defense will be great, but this team goes as Sanchez does.

New England Patriots 

Amidst Jets fever, it's easy to forget that the New England Patriots won this division last year. Tom Brady is two years removed from his injury and should be completely healthy. Banged up in 2009, the now 33 year old Brady still threw for 4398 yards and 28 touchdowns. With Randy Moss in a contract year, the receiver will be out to impress the NFL in case he moves on in free agency. Wes Welker is back from his knee surgery, but won't get close to the 123 catches of last season. Luckily, Julian Edelman came on strong in his absence and will see an increased role in this offense. The offensive line isn't as dependable, weakened by injuries and guard Logan Mankins' holdout. Tight ends Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski will see plenty of throws their way. What remains to be seen is if the running game becomes effective enough during the course of the season to take some of the pressure off Brady and that high-powered passing attack. If Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor don't have the holes in front of them or can't break a big one, Brady won't get any help.

As confident as I am in the Patriots offense, I am just as concerned with their defense. Losing Ty Warren on the interior of the line hampers their 3-4 defensive schemes. Linebacker / defensive end Derrick Burgess was cut, leaving that front three very inexperienced. The linebackers are no longer the veterans, but Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo's youth and ability should make for better production from that group. Safety Brandon McGowan is on IR and is lost for the season, as is corner Leigh Bodden. Drafting Devin McCourty in the first round and the emergence of Brandon Meriweather should keep the secondary from completely falling apart.

Last year's record: 10-6

2010 prediction: 11-5

It's tough to not like the Patriots offense, but their defense is lagging far behind. Belichick will have great schemes, but I have a hard time believing they'll be executed as well by these young whipper-snappers as they were during the dynasty days. They'll win the division though.

 
I'd make fun of his hair... if mine didn't look exactly the same. *Grumble*