Ugh. Do we really have to talk about the AFC West? Aside from the Chargers, there isn't a legitimate contender in the bunch. (And even San Diego will just crumble in the playoffs as usual.) Oh well. Here's what I see from the worst division in football.
Kansas City Chiefs
During the offseason the Chiefs installed Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel as the offensive and defensive coordinators under head coach Todd Haley. We might as well call them the Kansas City Patriots with ex Pat Matt Cassel at QB. Signing veteran RB Thomas Jones will give Jamaal Charles some competition and provide some leadership in that locker room. Chris Chambers came on strong after being traded to the Chiefs and should put up heftier numbers, especially if Dwayne Bowe decides to live up to his first round selection status.
With all of the first round picks spent on defense the past few seasons, you'd assume the Chiefs would be much improved in that area this year. 2008 5th overall pick Glenn Dorsey is entering his third season at defensive tackle and safety Eric Berry, 5th overall in 2010, is a special talent in the secondary. Brandon Flowers' five picks and 23 deflected passes led the team, giving them stability on the outside. I'm not a fan of their linebackers. Demorrio Williams isn't anything special, and he's the best they got.
Last year's record: 4-12
2010 prediction: 5-11
Yeah that's right, I still think they suck! I don't trust Matt Cassel, I'm hesitant about Charlie Weis' offense fitting the players in place and that defense under-achieves at a monumental level. I just can't figure this team out. Could they prove me wrong? Sure. Are they likely to? No.
Oakland Raiders
Ever since their Super Bowl appearance, the Raiders have been on a disastrous fall from grace the likes of which has rarely been seen in sports. Drafting JaMarcus Russell number one overall set the franchise back significantly, but making the trade for Jason Campbell of the Redskins gives them the first proven commodity at the position since Rich Gannon. (Though I do like Bruce Gradowski quite a bit. That guy's a winner...at least in Oakland anyways.) The offensive line isn't up to snuff, but at least Robert Gallery turned out to be a decent guard, if not a franchise left tackle. Drafting guard Bruce Campbell satiated owner Al Davis' love of physical attributes. Darren McFadden is an injury-prone and overrated running back who will watch as Michael Bush gets the heavy workload. Their wide receivers are young and fast, but not much else. Louis Murphy is the top deep threat. I'll say it again: Louis Murphy is their best receiver. Until Darrius Heyward-Bey proves he can catch more than 9 balls in a season, forget it. Tight end Zach Miller will be the go-to-guy all season for Campbell.
Despite his hate of being in Oakland, Richard Seymour needs to step up at the defensive end position and be the difference-maker he was in New England. Rookie Rolando McClain was a safe pick at linebacker, which was surprising given Davis' track record. Adding him to a group that now-includes Kamerion Wimbley should aid what was a lacking run defense. Impossible to forget is Nnamdi Asomugha, who's been the best and most consistent corner the past three or four years. (Keep doing it Revis, you'll get there.) Oakland's defense won't be the problem this year.
Last year's record: 5-11
2010 prediction: 6-10
I'm not falling for the hype. As much as I like the trade for Jason Campbell, he can't help the Raiders enough to reach a winning record. He simply doesn't have enough around him. Those wide-outs are hot garbage. They could get to 7-9, but that offensive just sucks.
However, their fans do not suck. Just look at that guy!
Denver Broncos
After getting out to a lightning fast 6-0 start, the Broncos finished out 2-8 and out of the playoff hunt. In a tumultuous offseason, Josh McDaniels traded for QB Brady Quinn and drafted Tim Tebow out of Florida, adding some sizzle to the Denver QB derby. Eddie Royal and rookie Demaryius Thomas have to make up for the loss of Brandon Marhshall in McDaniels' offense which is dependent on short passes and runs after the catch. The Bronco running backs are struck with the injury plague, none more important than Knowshon Moreno, who can't stay on the field. The offensive line is always solid in Denver, but left tackle Ryan Clady's return from injury to the starting line-up in their final preseason outing was sorely needed.
If there was a defensive player the Broncos could not afford to lose, it was Elvis Dumervil, the leading sack-getter in the NFL during 2009. So obviously right after he signed his massive contract extension it makes sense that he went down for the year with a pectoral tear. Denver is hoping Robert Ayers can step-up from the linebacker spot, but those are big shoes to fill. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are aging talents in the secondary whose long careers are going to catch up with them eventually.
Last year's record: 8-8
2010 prediction: 7-9
In reality, the Broncos are somewhere between the 6-0 team that started last year and the 2-8 squad that finished it. If Josh McDaniels is FINALLY done shipping away all their talent on the roster, maybe what's left will finally begin to gel. Orton can run the offense efficiently enough, but McDaniels' roster gutting will be apparent this season. Too many unproven players are filling that roster now.
My favorite part about the Broncos. Can we call them the "Mile-High Girls?" No? Crap.
San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers had one of the best regular season performances last year, but he was overshadowed by Peyton Manning along with everyone else. Rivers has established himself in the top tier of NFL signal-callers, but he has yet to make the ascension to dominance. This year may prove difficult to take that step, as deep threat Vincent Jackson is holding out and trying to work out a trade someplace else. If he's not on the team, expect that 5th ranked pass offense to lag slightly. Legedu Naanee and Malcolm Floyd are dependable receivers, but they can't make the same plays Jackson has. Running back Ryan Matthews seems prepared to make an immediate impact, partnered with Darren Sproles. Experimenting with Sproles as a featured back was a bad idea, one that Matthews' presence will correct. Antonio Gates is still the most explosive tight end in the league and will put up another monster season. If left tackle Marcus McNeill continues his holdout, the offensive line will have a hard time protecting Rivers long enough to throw a deep ball.
Unlike their offense, it's hard to find difference-makers on the Charger defense. Shawne Merriman just hasn't been the same pass-rusher since his PED suspension. Larry English hasn't staked his claim on a starting linebacker role just yet either. Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason aren't push-overs at corner, but the secondary just doesn't create the turnovers it needs to any longer. The Charger pass rush is weak and their run defense is soft. Not a tremendous combination.
Last year's record: 13-3
2010 prediction: 10-6
Oh Chargers, when will you finally reach any level of post-season success? Not this year, says I. As it stands right now, the 2010 San Diego Chargers will take a step backwards... and still win the division. Until they prove anything, they're still just a good regular season club.
Don't expect to see this a lot in 2010.
