Joe's Gameday Preview: Packers at Bears

It is the longest-running rivalry in the history of the NFL. We've waited eight days for this showdown at Soldier Field and the time is finally upon us! Here's my breakdown of tonight's meeting between the 2-0 Chicago Bears and the 2-0 Green Bay Packers.

(2-0) Green Bay Packers at
(2-0) Chicago Bears

With the best QB rating in the NFL through two weeks, Jay Cutler is handling the Mike Martz offense as well as could have been expected. Tonight that offense faces its toughest test in a Green Bay defense that features stand-outs at key positions. Starting up front, B.J. Raji will cause all sorts of trouble for center Olin Kreutz and guards Roberto Garza and Lance Louis. Defensive ends Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett are coming off of injuries and won't be 100% if they can make it on the field tonight. With Chris Williams out with a hamstring injury, Frank Omiyale will again start at left tackle with Kevin Shaffer replacing him at right. Where line coach Mike Tice and the Bears are going to be preoccupied is with Clay Matthews, the stand-out second year linebacker that has racked up six sacks in the first two games of the season. Keeping him off of Cutler will be integral in the offense's success, but there may not be as much max protection as you'd expect. Martz may continue his gameplan from last week with more quick passes to the receivers and tight ends to take pressure of the offensive line and to keep the flurry of Dom Caper's blitzes away.

Beyond the trenches, the Bears will have to contend with a defense that can be exposed with the passing game. Charles Woodson is still a phenomenal defender, but he's only one man. The Bears glut of good but not great receivers fit Martz's system well and can take advantage of the Packer secondary if they get the opportunity. Johnny Knox and Devin Hester need to show up tonight if the Bear offense will move the ball. Greg Olsen should be in for a huge game as well, especially if the short passing game is Martz's primary focus. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor won't find a lot of room to run against a Green Bay front seven that has four dynamic linebackers on the prowl. A.J. Hawk may not be their best linebacker anymore, but he's no slouch. It'll be rough going on the ground, so screen passes will help get the Packers on their heels.

As well as the Green Bay offense has looked in two games, they're still not clicking on all cylinders. Aaron Rodgers hasn't put together a complete game like we're all expecting him to, but he could find plenty of holes in Lovie Smith's cover-two if he's patient. Giving him trouble in that respect will Julius Peppers, who should see plenty of Chad Clifton at left tackle. Clifton has been iffy this week with a knee injury, so look for Peppers to test him early and often with the speed rush. Tommie Harris has to help get penetration up the middle so Rodgers can't step up in the pocket and the limited Packer running game has to bounce it to the outside against the speedy Bear defense. ***UPDATE Harris will be inactive tonight due to a coach's decision. Sounds like someone's been a bad boy. Or an idiot, either one. That's not great. Matt Toeaina will get the start in his place. Without Ryan Grant, the Packers will only run the ball to keep Chicago honest. If they need a first down, they're going through the air.

To that point, the Bear secondary is in for a long night if the front four doesn't get pressure. Charles Tillman and Zack Bowman need to keep Donald Driver and Greg Jennings under wraps, but its D.J. Moore's match-up against that third wide-out James Jones or Jordy Nelson that will be key to slowing down the Pack. They're so deep at receiver that their number four could go off for 80 yards and a TD. Despite their downfield threats, the Packers have an excellent receiving right end in Jermichael Finley, who will be in a mis-match all night long no matter who is covering him. Putting a safety on him would be a size problem and take away a much-needed deep defender, so look for one of the Bear linebackers to meet him at the line of scrimmage. Brian Urlacher should continue his high-energy play in this highly anticipated match-up. Good luck boys.

The Odds:

Packers are a three point favorite on the road, meaning Vegas considers this a pick 'em.

Prediction:

I want a win SO badly, but I'm not sold the Bear offense OR defense can keep up with the Packers. It's not the biggest game of the season (impossible to have one in week 3), but it's doesn't get more intense than Packers-Bears. My boys drop a close one.

How many heart attacks will Joe suffer?

This is a new addition to my Gameday Previews. In this segment, I'll predict on how many dramatic or "heart-stopping" moments will occur in the game. Note that this isn't necessarily a positive or negative unit of measurement, just an indication of how close the game will be. An expected blow-out would have few, but a tight contest will get more. Tonight? A minimum of six heart attacks. I won't be able to eat.

Message to the Bears:

If you win, you make believers out of us all. Go get 'em.

Bear down and Happy Jay Cutler Day!