Joe's Gameday Preview: Bears at Packers

It's the last game of the 2010 regular season for the Chicago Bears, and it's fitting that it comes against their long-time rival Green Bay Packers. Despite all the history, this game will be meaningless to the Bears by the time kick-off rolls around. With the Falcons up huge on the Panthers during this writing, the Bears would be locked into the number two seed in the NFC with nowhere to go. So should they play to win?

(11-4) Chicago Bears at
(9-6) Green Bay Packers

Offensively the Bears have been on a roll the past few weeks, picking up the defense’s slack in their win over the Jets. 7-1 in their last eight games, Chicago’s offense is balanced yet dangerous under the instruction of Mike Martz and his excellent play-calling. Martz will need that today if the Bears are going to out-shoot the Packers with a likely limited number of plays with Jay Cutler. Cutler will obviously be pulled from the game at some point, especially if there’s no chance of improving their standings. Be prepared for a very conservative gameplan from Martz, who will be under strict orders to keep Cutler healthy. So only a few seven-step drops will be on the docket for today against Clay Matthews and a Dom Capers defense. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor will get the bulk of the action today, but Taylor really needs to see serious action before the playoffs start. He’s been under-used this season and it’s been a shame that he never sees the holes that Forte gets. Today has to be a work-out for Taylor if nothing else.

When it comes to the defense, Lovie Smith is going to have a glut of receivers to keep track of throughout the game. Aaron Rodgers loves to spread the ball around. Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver and James Jones all have 70-80 yard receiving days in them. Even as the Packers have somewhat regained a running game with Brandon Jackson and fullback John Kuhn, they’re not a threat on the ground. Out of the backfield though, Kuhn is dangerous near the red zone, quickly developing into Rodgers’s favorite target. Where the Packers are still weak is on the offensive line. While they’re better than they were early on, that line will break down enough times to give Peppers and Idonije chances at the quarterback. They just have to make the most of them.

I’ve heard so much discussion over the past week about the idea of “playing to win” or needing to knock out the “dangerous” Packers from the playoffs. Let me debunk those notions. First of all, my team should be playing to win the freaking Super Bowl. They earned the right to get a meaningless game and then to have a week off. Resting key members of this defense will be significant as the playoffs come around. I don’t care about a rivalry when we’ve earned a playoff spot. The Bears don’t owe anything to the rest of the NFC or to this rivalry. Second, if the Packers make it in, the Bears could see the Eagles, Packers or Saints when they host a divisional round game. Every team will be dangerous. The only way knocking them out helps is if the Giants lose as well and the Buccaneers get in. But the Bucs likely wouldn’t get past the wildcard round anyway, so what’s the point?

The Odds:

The Packers are 10.5 point home favorites.

The Prediction: 

Lovie will eventually (and rightly) pull his starters from this one, all but ensuring a Packers win.

How many heart attacks will Joe suffer?

Only as many as there are hits on my Jay Cutler.

Message to the Bears:

Don't get blinded by this long-standing rivalry. Your goal is the Super Bowl, not winning a regular season finale.