For only the second time in their storied history, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will meet in the playoffs. In 1941, the game was for the NFL’s then Western Section championship. In 2010, the NFC Championship and a trip to Dallas for the Super Bowl will be on the line. The Windy City is at a fever-pitch with anticipation. Now comes the part where they have to actually play. Ya know, that whole football thing. I’m done fluffing up this game now; let’s just get to the break down!
3:00 PM ET, FOX
(12-6) Green Bay Packers at(12-5) Chicago BearsThe Breakdown:
So they’re here. Now what? When the season started I would have been… hesitant to crown the Bears NFC Champs. Now, thanks to a sturdy defense with multiple play-makers, fantastic special teams and the mid-season changes from Mike Martz and Mike Tice, they’re a game away from that title. However, standing in their way are the streaking Green Bay Packers, a far cry from the craptastic Seattle Seahawks Chicago trounced in the divisional round.
While we all know about Chicago’s excellent defense, the Bears will win or lose dependent on the offense’s production and ability to control the ball. Giving Aaron Rodgers more possessions than normal is not advised. In order to keep Rodgers on the sidelines, Martz must keep attacking Green Bay’s front seven on the ground. Dom Capers loves throwing a variety of blitzes at opposing offensive lines, but he skews towards a speedier line-up, sometimes only putting two down linemen on the field. Chicago’s front five has to be able to manhandle the smaller Packer front and get Matt Forte and Chester Taylor into the secondary. Picking up 5-8 yard chunks on the ground keeps Cutler upright and puts the Bears in manageable down and distance situations, keeping Clay Matthews out of the backfield and on his heels.
Even if the Bears get their running game going early, Jay Cutler can make this game a blow-out… for either team. He’s been dynamically careful in the past 9 weeks, lowering his interceptions and racking up the wins. Is it somehow related to the fact that he’s not taking seven-step drops and being pummeled like he was early in the season? Could be… Regardless, Cutler must continue winning in the post-season if he’s going to shake the criticism. Tossing four picks just isn’t going to cut it, and against the corner tandem of Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, he could have issues if he forces a ball where he shouldn’t. Williams and Woodson should see time on Knox, Hester and Bennett most of the game, but Greg Olsen could have another explosion on Sunday. Green bay has given up big yards to tight ends this season and Olsen has the speed to capitalize on their man-to-man coverages. Aside from Matthews, Green Bay’s linebackers aren’t extraordinarily speedy. And if they waste Matthews by putting him on Olsen on passing downs the Bears win that match-up by default. Erik Walden came on late in the season, but he’s not consistent enough in pass coverage to be a game-changer. A.J. Hawk is as solid as they come, but he’s a bruiser, not a flier. If Martz gets Olsen involved early like he did against Seattle (but never came back to), Green Bay’s defense could be loosened up for runs on the edges.
On the defensive front, the Bears are going to have their hands full. Green Bay’s ground game isn’t intimidating by any stretch of the imagination (though Kuhn can and will rumble for extra yards if you let him), but their passing attack is. Aaron Rodgers has been frightening good this post-season and his group of receivers is the best in the league. Greg Jennings is their clear number one, but Rodgers makes Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones look like they could start for any team in the NFL with the way he sets them up for yards after the catch. Chicago’s cover-two scheme will leave holes for these receivers to squat. It’s up to the corners and linebackers to make them regret catching the ball and separate them from it. As the Bears are known to do, they will drop their defenders into coverage and try to pressure Rodgers with four linemen (mostly Julius Peppers) for most of the game. If they can, Rodgers won’t have time to find his open targets. Peppers will factor largely in the Bears' pass rush and will almost always face two blockers. It's up to the rest of the line to show up.
Both quarterbacks have the ability to run, but one may have a few more opportunities come Sunday. Green Bay likes to play man-to-man coverages, so their corners will be attached to their responsibility, which could leave Cutler room to run and pick up first downs. Chicago’s zone defense leaves their defenders to keep track of areas on the field and leave their eyes on the quarterback, which could prevent long scrambles by Rodgers.
On special teams, the Bears are going to have the distinct advantage. Devin Hester and Danieal Manning are all-too dangerous on punt and kick returns, but even if they don’t break a big return, the yards they garner will be invaluable to the field position battle. Green Bay’s injury plague may not have affected their offensive and defensive production, but all those replacements came from the special teams squad, weakening it as the season went on. They have too many lapses on kick coverage and their rookie punter isn’t as consistent as they’d like. So while Chicago may not have the one-up on offense or defense, they should win the game on special teams.
The Odds: Green Bay is a 3.5 point road favorite.
The Prediction: I’ll take the Bears to beat the spread. I’m not convinced they’ll win, but they need to keep it close. (Though I almost took the Pack to cover. Almost.)Message to the Bears: You know you’ll never live it down if you let the Packers come into Soldier Field and beat you, right? That would be a disappointment of epic proportions. Let’s not have that happen, okay?
Bear down and happy Jay Cutler day!
