The Opening Drive: Super Bowl XLV

It’s finally here. After two weeks of hype and build-up (and an uber-lame Pro Bowl somewhere in there), the Super Bowl is upon us. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers are set to kick off later tonight with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. If you missed them, here are my takes on the rosters of the Steelers and Packers. Now let’s get to some analysis!

Instead of just mentioning who is facing off with whom, I’ll instead explain how I would attack/defend against the various units.

Two-tight ends. It’s just about that simple for me. Take Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth and put them on the line of scrimmage and force the Green Bay defense to put three down linemen on the field, slowing down their defense. The Packers want to drop back into coverage and let Clay Matthews and Cullen Jenkins meet at the quarterback. Instead, the Steelers should slow the game down and feed Rashard Mendenhall the ball as much as possible. If he gets over 25 carries the Steelers will win, but a large portion of those must go to the outside as to avoid B.J. Raji. Dough Legursky will not be able to handle him at all. In the passing game, hit Ward, Wallace and Sanders on short slants and curls, giving them a chance to break tackles and get down the field. Every other throw should go toward Miller, who is a match-up problem for any of the Packer linebackers or safeties.

Hit Aaron Rodgers… a lot. While the Packer offense doesn’t have many holes in its pass protection, their running game isn’t one to be feared. Pittsburgh won’t have issues defending against James Starks. Get James Harrison and LaMarr in the backfield and put Rodgers on the turf early and often. The Steeler corners are good… but only through their top three. After that, the mismatches become obvious. Jordy Nelson or James Jones is going cause some problems for that fourth cornerback.

Throw, throw, and throw again. I know Mike McCarthy loves to keep his offense balanced, but the Packers may be the only team in the league that can replicate the Patriots’ demolishing of Pittsburgh during the regular season. Find Nelson and Driver in the middle of the field and find a few shots to take at Greg Jennings when the Steelers drop out of their cover-three shell, which won’t be often. Handing it off to Starks every now and again might remind the Steelers the Pack still has a running back on the roster, which might open up some play-action plays later on. Honestly though, I would just go five-wide and sling it. Who really wants to run against the Steeler front seven?

Get them in passing situations and don’t let Roethlisberger out of the pocket… ever. Ben’s at his best/worst when he can get scramble and keep plays alive. If you don’t let him get started, those plays can’t develop. Wrap him up and bring him to the ground. To get into passing downs though, you have to stuff the run early. There’s no need for Roethlisberger to take chances if Mendenhall is gashing you for 6-8 yards a carry. (Any early points from the Packer offense will help speed up the game’s tempo, something the Steelers can’t always keep up with.)

With two top defenses facing off, points are going to be at a premium. Obviously the Packer offense is potent, but can they score enough to put the Steelers off their game?

Match-up to Watch: Greg Jennings against Ike Taylor on the outside. If the Packers offense hits its groove, you can bet Jennings is one of the reasons why. Taylor has to press him at the line or risk getting burned.

The Odds: Green Bay is a 2.5 point favorite.

The Prediction: With their extensive championship pedigree (especially in recent years, which is definitively more significant), I’m going with the Steelers in a close one. If I get this right, it will put me at a mediocre 5-6 in the postseason. Zoinks Scoob.

The MVP: I’ll take a chance on Heath Miller. If it goes well for the Steelers, Miller could end up with anywhere from 8-10 catches for close to 100 yards. He’ll keep drives alive with timely catches.

I’ll be back later tonight with a recap of the action!