How Much I Effed Up: The 2010 AFC Edition

With a lock-out now imposed in the NFL, I decided to take a look back at the 2010-2011 season standings and see where I went right/wrong with my preseason picks. Starting with the AFC, here’s what I predicted… and then what really happened, along with a five-star scale of my correctitude.

The scale is measured thusly:

***** = Dead on. I’m a genius.

**** = 1-2 games off the mark. Not too shabby.

*** = 3 games off. At least I’m in the ballpark.

** = 4-5 games off. The team let me down. (Or I'm a 'tard.)

* = 6+ games off. I should get a pass for these picks because they’re so bad. (That and everyone else probably flubbed too.)

AFC East

New England Patriots

My prediction: 11-5
What actually happened: 14-2
My result: ***

So I didn’t think they’d be THAT good. I guess it’s the Patriot-hater in me. The early playoff exit brought his team back down to earth, but there’s no questioning the talent of Tom Brady, who was unanimously awarded the MVP, and rightly so. If that defense keeps getting better, look out.

New York Jets

My prediction: 9-7
What actually happened: 11-5
My result: ****

Mark Sanchez grew into his role in his second year, making for fewer lows and more highs as he came down the stretch. I’m not completely ready to take the training wheels off yet though. Now that defense needs to get younger.

Miami Dolphins

My prediction: 8-8
What actually happened: 7-9
My result: ****

Chad Henne was erratic at best, leading to his benching for Chad Pennington (for one play) while the losses caused ownership to flirt with Jim Harbaugh. Miami’s offense was a hindrance on the year, losing the games that their defense typically kept close.

Mediocirty never looked so good.

Buffalo Bills

My prediction: 3-13
What actually happened: 4-12
My result: ****

Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn’t awful. Whoda thunk it? Now we wait to see if they replace him in the draft. This team is still at least two years away from flirting with .500 in that division.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

My prediction: 10-6
What actually happened: 4-12
My result: *

Um… an implosion. That’s what happened. Now Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson AND the disgruntled Carson Palmer could all be gone in a single offseason. And Owens wasn’t even a problem! In fact, he was productive! The defense got soft, as did the offense. And somehow, Marvin Lewis didn’t lose his job. This team baffles me.

Also, this guy baffles me.

Baltimore Ravens

My prediction: 10-6
What actually happened: 12-4
My result: ****

Despite their age, the Ravens defense came to play for another season. Unfortunately, that revamped offense slowed down the stretch to a crawl, unable to trust any of the wide receivers they brought in during the offseason. So WTF was the point of spending all that money?

Pittsburgh Steelers

My prediction: 9-7
What actually happened: 12-4
My result: ***

I thought they’d struggle a bit more during Ben’s suspension. That was obviously not the case as they got out to a 3-1 start and went on to the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to that defense that never seems to slip. Though Big Ben lost the Big One, so I was happy.

More like "Lose Like a Douchebag Every Day."

Cleveland Browns

My prediction: 4-12
What actually happened: 5-11
My result: ****

They showed promise late in the year as Colt McCoy turned heads against stiff competition. The arrow is pointing up, but how far they can go in that division is the big question.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

My prediction: 13-3
What actually happened: 10-6
My result: ***

So Peyton Manning finally proved to be human… with a little help from a porous offensive line and a decimated wide receiver corps. Was there a more dangerous profession last year than Colts wide-out? That defense needs to get big and physical in the middle if they’re going to continue to compete.

Houston Texans

My prediction: 9-7
What actually happened: 6-10
My result: ***

I never bought into the Texans being the “dark horse” of the AFC (as they seem to be anointed every year), but I didn’t think they’d struggle so mightily. Their defense McBlows.

Tennessee Titans

My prediction: 9-7
What actually happened: 6-10
My result: ***

Um… almost nothing good happened in Tennessee this year. Jeff Fisher and Vince Young are out and the team is going to have to rebuild starting at the quarterback position once again. Kerry Collins stop-gap anyone?

When you have one of these toolbag pictures on the 'net, you can't be a star QB. Ever see one of Manning, Brady or Brees? Nope.

Jacksonville Jaguars

My prediction: 5-11
What actually happened: 8-8
My result: ***

Jack Del Rio maximized his team’s talent output to get to 8-8, which is both a good and a bad thing. I will never believe they can make an impact as long as the Jekyll and Hyde David Garrard is under center.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers

My prediction: 10-6
What actually happened: 9-7
My result: ****

Shockingly enough, the Chargers couldn’t win the AFC West, all due to key losses down the stretch, a time when they’ve normally played their best. How is Norv Turner still employed after all these collapses?

This is the same picture at the end of every Charger season.

Denver Broncos

My prediction: 7-9
What actually happened: 4-12
My result: ***

This season was a big fat pfft for the Broncos. Josh McDaniels clearly lost this locker room… or more accurately, he probably never had it. That defense needs a ton of work and so does Tim Tebow. Oh, and they’re low on actual talent. Not a great situation for John Fox.

Oakland Raiders

My prediction: 6-10
What actually happened: 8-8
My result: ****

So… Tom Cable gets his squad to over-perform and get to an 8-8 record (including an impressive 6-0 in their division) despite having never decided between his two quarterbacks… and he gets fired for it. Al Davis… you make no sense to me. This move was a year too late. Despite the crazy in the front office, the Raiders are another solid (re: sensible) draft away from competing for this division.

Kansas City Chiefs

My prediction: 5-11
What actually happened: 10-6
My result: **

Yeah… I was way off on this one. Matt Cassel really came into his own, keeping his interceptions freakishly low (7) and tossing 27 TD’s. KC’s running game was outstanding on the year while receiver Dwayne Bowe was a monster in the endzone. Romeo Crennel’s defense was the real factor though, keeping the Chiefs in every game. Even their lop-sided playoffs loss to the Ravens can be attributed to their offense’s 5 turnovers. Still, they’re young and just getting better.

Way to look like a serial killer that doesn't want to get ID'd, dude on the right.

So in the AFC I got 52 stars out of a possible 80. A healthy 65%, if you’re doing the math at home. (And I know you’re not.) I was all over the AFC East, but the North and South divisions gave me trouble. Freaking Bengals.

Check back soon for How Much I Effed Up: The 2010 NFC Edition!