Gabriel Rodriguez's NFL Football fan blog

I’m Not Picking the Winner

By now everyone in the country who is on TV, writes for a newspaper, blogs, or breathes has made their Super Bowl pick.  I’m not going to do that.  I will not succumb. 

Instead I am going to focus on some of the fun prop bets that are out there and make those picks.  (This has actually turned into a contest between me and my wife.  We have made picks on the prop bets and we are going to see who gets the most right.)

Legal Disclaimer:  I must stress these are for entertainment purposes only.  (No they’re not.  I don’t care.  I hope you make a mint wagering on the Super Bowl.)

Here are some of the more fun ones:

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For personal reasons, I really want to pick the Cardinals and Ravens to win this weekend.

I have many friends who are Ravens fans including my younger brother who was a member of the Baltimore Ravens’ marching band (and he may be a part of them again in the near future.)  He was, even if it was somewhat obliquely, a “Raven.”   He and I spend just about every Raven’s game texting back and forth.  He’s too young to really remember the Raven’s success of the early 2000’s.  He had just turned 9 when the Raven’s won the Super Bowl and all he really remembers about it is me (a lifelong Giants fan) fuming for most of the game and storming out when it was over.  So for his sake, I like to see the Ravens win.

Continue reading "Heads or Hearts on Championship Weekend"

Hurray for the CAA and FCS (Division 1-AA)!  They are all over this year’s NFL final four.

Quick Aside:

I am a die-hard James Madison University (JMU) fan.  My wife and I both attended JMU.  She graduated.  I had a great time for a number of years.  Growing up I was not a fan of any major college team.  I did not become dedicated to one until I started attending a mid-sized Division 1-AA school (screw the NCAA FCS new-speak) in central Virginia.  So because of all that I follow JMU and their conference, the CAA. 

Brief history of JMU football:  JMU starts playing in the early seventies.  They do nothing of note for nearly 30 years except for being the college home of Gary Clark, Charles Haley, and Scott Norwood (better known as the Buffalo Bills kicker who went wide right in the closing seconds of Super Bowl XXV.)

Continue reading "The CAA, FCS, and the NFL's final four."

• Drew Brees won the AP Offensive Player of the Year award.  I can’t argue with that pick.  Anytime you come within a deep out route of Dan Marino’s single season passing record, you can be the Offensive POY.
• Mike Smith was Coach of the Year.  I can’t argue there either.  Any of the successful rookie head coaches, Smith, Sparano, and Harbaugh, could have won this award.  Smith had the toughest situation before the season started and led the Falcons to the playoffs. 
• The Patriots franchised Matt Cassell.  That was a no-brainer.  Sure, on the surface, $29 million next year for two quarterbacks seems steep.  But the salary cap is going up about $28 million next year.  Take away the $14 million they are giving Cassell and this still have about $14 million more to spend next year than they did this year.  They sure up the most important position on the offense.  Plus, if they trade him they get a 1st and 3rd round pick.  Who knows, there may be a team out there that is only a good QB away from going to the next level.  Hello Buffalo? (And if you think the Pats won’t let Cassell go to Buffalo talk to Lawyer Milloy or Drew Bledsoe.)

Continue reading "Quick Hits and Playoff Week 2 Picks"

So, evidently Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson is surprised he isn’t the Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

I don’t have the exact quote, but he said something like, “I found out yesterday that I am not the ROY.”

Well of course not Chris.  And let’s look at why.  You’re a running back, arguably the position with the easiest transition from college to the pros.  Most people say it is. I say wide receiver can be equally easy, for the talented ones.

You didn’t start.  You split time with LenDale White.

You had the third most rushing yards for rookie running backs this year.  Matt Forte and Steve Slaton finished ahead of you.  (You talk about letting the players vote because they are on the field with you.  Remember Week 15 when your Titans played the Texans and Slaton out rushed you 100 yards to 65?)

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Thin-slicing. It is the act cutting through all extraneous information and getting to the key items that characterize something. Malcolm Gladwell wrote an entertaining and informative book on thin-slicing called Blink.

So, I’m going to thin-slice and predict this week’s NFL playoff winners.

When predicting the winners, what factors are important? In my opinion, it’s not which team is better, or which team has the best record, or scored the most points, or gives up the fewest. To me the important factors to winning in the NFL are the running game on both sides of the ball and turnovers. It’s simple, run the ball, stop the run. Get takeaways, and don’t turn the ball over.

But for the playoffs there is one other very important factor: Momentum. The teams playing the best leading up to the playoffs continue to win in the post-season.

Continue reading "Thin-slicing Week 1 of the NFL Playoffs"