Thin-slicing. It is the act cutting through all extraneous information and getting to the key items that characterize something. Malcolm Gladwell wrote an entertaining and informative book on thin-slicing called Blink.
So, I’m going to thin-slice and predict this week’s NFL playoff winners.
When predicting the winners, what factors are important? In my opinion, it’s not which team is better, or which team has the best record, or scored the most points, or gives up the fewest. To me the important factors to winning in the NFL are the running game on both sides of the ball and turnovers. It’s simple, run the ball, stop the run. Get takeaways, and don’t turn the ball over.
But for the playoffs there is one other very important factor: Momentum. The teams playing the best leading up to the playoffs continue to win in the post-season.
All of that considered, here are my picks for this weekend: In the NFC, I love Atlanta over Arizona in the desert. Wait, wait………. a Kurt Warner lead team with a high-flying offense against a team no one expected to be there with a terrific young quarterback? This story sounds familiar. (Ahem, Super Bowl XXXVI, Patriots 20 – Rams 17.)
But really, history aside, the way to beat the Cardinals is to make sure that offense in not on the field very often, because they will put up points quickly. Atlanta can ensure Warner and Boldin and Fitzgerald stay on the bench by running the ball, a lot. Atlanta can do that. Amidst all of the chaos that team has had in the last few years, they were consistently the number one rushing offense in the league. This year they were number two, a scant half yard per game behind the Giants. (154.7 to 154.2 YPG, there it is, research.)
Arizona should expect heavy doses of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Also, Atlanta does not turn the ball over. Matt Ryan has only thrown 11 interceptions all year. Two years ago people were going nuts because Peyton Manning threw only 10 picks. Granted Manning threw 49 TD’s to Ryan’s 16, but when you have the horses Atlanta does, let them run.
On the other side of the ball I think Atlanta’s defense is under-rated, especially the front seven. If they can get to Warner, and disrupt his rhythm, that will take the pressure off of the secondary and make things much harder for the Cardinals.
So, I’m taking the team with the rookie head coach, the rookie QB, and the running back in his first year as the feature back (although he spent his formative years backing up Mr. Tomlinson, not a bad apprenticeship.) The score will be close, but the telling stat will be time of possession. Atlanta should almost double Arizona there and win the game.
In the other games this weekend:
Eagles over the Vikings: Philly’s defense is too good and the team as a whole is too experienced in the playoffs. Tavaris Jackson will think there are 14 defenders on the field because of the way the Eagles fly around. The Eagles offense can put up points in bunches.
Colts over San Diego: Momentum. Indy hasn’t lost a game since before Halloween. The Chargers have been playing well lately but Philip Rivers is about due for one his 78 passing yard, 4 interception games. He’ll be frustrated and Indy will roll.
Ravens over Dolphins: The Ravens have a pretty good rookie QB of their own. They also have a three headed monster at running back and will keep the ball out of Miami’s hands. Even when Miami does have the ball they will be overwhelmed by the Ravens still elite defense. Chad Pennington will force throws and turn the ball over.
